Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8e174f8af1ffb4b4fd088de870ba1b9004f8200e59edd215db16b38f41a8c28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,796 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 7c | 2,159$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.99 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,888$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 12c | 1,649$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.49 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 10c | 1,556$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.23 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 12c | 1,290$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.19 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 5c | 1,271$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…319abacked Yes | 4c | 1,222$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,179$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 2c | 1,012$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 1,003$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 919.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd75e…ca32backed Yes | 4c | 819.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…44bcbacked Yes | 6c | 805.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 3c | 731.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 15c | 692.68$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.18 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…d070backed Yes | 44c | 681.37$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 9c | 627.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 10c | 556.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 524.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 518.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 9c | 506.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d0…2295backed Yes | 14c | 492.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 22c | 399.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 9c | 366.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 15c | 348.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 10c | 343.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 6c | 309.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…05efbacked Yes | 28c | 308.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 10c | 299.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…0383backed Yes | 15c | 275.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 8c | 254.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 253.47$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…d614backed Yes | 8c | 247.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 9c | 244.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 11c | 236.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…2a41backed Yes | 10c | 217.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 16c | 209.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed No | 75c | 207.78$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…b867backed Yes | 7c | 204.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 7c | 199.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 199.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 8c | 188.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 40c | 152.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…d246backed Yes | 15c | 136.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…695dbacked Yes | 16c | 129.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 15c | 119.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 29c | 110.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes | 9c | 109.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 107.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 102.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…9848backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 13c | 99.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 32c | 94.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 13c | 78.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed Yes | 32c | 75.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed Yes | 15c | 68.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5afb…92edbacked Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…bf9fbacked No | 76c | 62.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 25c | 55.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…d6fbbacked Yes | 45c | 53.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 73c | 49.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 64c | 42.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked Yes | 55c | 39.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…cab2backed No | 79c | 36.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5e…2b8dbacked No | 74c | 26.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…0746backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 78c | 17.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.