Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15fb78b6a8a067cc91e5255f592d7a59ffe4c33ae69ef40f9ff00c450c7648a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,287 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 2c | 2,752$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,709.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,626$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,581.96 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 2,212$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 10c | 2,101$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.32 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 7c | 1,710$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 2c | 1,165$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.81 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,146$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.88 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 4c | 1,110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.71 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 2c | 1,056$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 14c | 1,031$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.06 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 969.47$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 24c | 883.81$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…85ddbacked No | 2c | 878.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 3c | 851.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.37 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 13c | 828.37$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.77 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 51c | 658.85$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 2c | 617.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.28 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 2c | 503.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.26 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 2c | 501.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.6 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 39c | 462.03$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.15 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 4c | 425$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.12 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 47c | 399.92$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.47 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…851abacked No | 4c | 380.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 5c | 308.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.72 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 6c | 271.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.9 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 270.78$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 55c | 268.28$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.52 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 20c | 252.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.49 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 8c | 240$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 233.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 40c | 228.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 36c | 214.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.78 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 206$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 30c | 197$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.3 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 19c | 184.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.83 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 6c | 181.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.34 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 80c | 180$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 15c | 179$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 28c | 153.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8af7…af1ebacked Yes | 61c | 146.92$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked No | 43c | 140$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 15c | 139.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes | 65c | 123.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…f74fbacked Yes | 66c | 117.73$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5a…a973backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked No | 40c | 99.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…cab2backed Yes | 33c | 95.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…0f11backed No | 37c | 80.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 28c | 71.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 43c | 62.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 57c | 59.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 39c | 54.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 44c | 52.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 23c | 50.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…2783backed Yes | 60c | 50.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d8…5e9abacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62df…1411backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked No | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 39c | 44.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 67c | 35.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…2d9dbacked Yes | 65c | 34.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 58c | 34.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8999…06d7backed Yes | 63c | 31.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…5a62backed No | 64c | 31.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 38c | 30.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…53c9backed No | 38c | 29.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 42c | 23.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 47c | 21.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d56…8ec6backed No | 76c | 18.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.