Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Van Hilleary be the TN-06 Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7aa9a1c8287b2a9cdaf7cd5bfff923e1bac6d3c757924b084e0f9da6c86c8a01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 7c | 4,627$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.91 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 21c | 4,133$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.73 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 13c | 2,692$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.78 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 2,071$1,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.41 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 946.04$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.3 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 679.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 21c | 605.96$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.25 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 75c | 400$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 23c | 393$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 354.69$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…cdc3backed Yes | 11c | 351.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +358.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 270$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked No | 79c | 262.43$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 13c | 256.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 80c | 253.13$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 76c | 233.41$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 211.97$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 23c | 211$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…8fa1backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 76c | 197$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 78c | 133$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 130.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 8c | 127.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 79c | 116.19$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 75c | 111$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 73c | 97.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 78c | 96.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 72c | 96.01$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e08…d327backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 14c | 74.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 73.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 71c | 71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebbf…cf44backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 67.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 78c | 66.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…4faebacked Yes | 24c | 64.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 61.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 29c | 57.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…4094backed Yes | 26c | 54.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 77c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…220bbacked Yes | 24c | 50.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 28c | 44.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed No | 77c | 35.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…e865backed No | 73c | 35.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked No | 73c | 35.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 30.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c19…cd48backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 79c | 18.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 76c | 17.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e3…8327backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Van Hilleary be the TN-06 Republican nominee?this page
- Will Johnny Garrett be the TN-06 Republican nominee?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.