Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Johnny Garrett be the TN-06 Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ab3625c6a7c0542aa66baa6152f96f28e54cb48b3a0d3ffaf17705cf0ab3e5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2dc…49f9backed Yes | 79c | 7,000$5,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.92 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 15c | 4,240$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.12 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 16c | 4,137$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.94 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 8c | 3,856$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.52 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 73c | 3,500$2,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.56 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 16c | 2,240$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.51 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 13c | 2,165$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.9 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 16c | 2,057$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.45 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 14c | 1,736$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.11 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 17c | 1,370$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 24c | 1,217$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.66 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 4c | 1,201$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 869.99$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.3 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 564.54$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.07 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 15c | 526$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 443.71$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 75c | 436.52$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.41 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 21c | 420.74$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 26c | 382.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 23c | 355.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 30c | 316$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 295.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 292$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 270$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…bb1dbacked No | 30c | 256.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 76c | 224$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 78c | 220.29$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 73c | 220$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 215$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 28c | 211.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 24c | 166.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 10c | 165$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 17c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…4094backed No | 27c | 155.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 21c | 147$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked No | 19c | 140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 21c | 133$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 76c | 131.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 14c | 127.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 76c | 118$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 28c | 108$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 30c | 105.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e95…ec2cbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 26c | 97.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 12c | 97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 78c | 88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 19c | 74.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed96…d6edbacked Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 18c | 69.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 22c | 68.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 76c | 60.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…2a50backed No | 28c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 23c | 52.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3625…2a57backed Yes | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc5…5312backed Yes | 73c | 34.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc506…d0a7backed Yes | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed Yes | 79c | 18.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Johnny Garrett be the TN-06 Republican nominee?this page
- Will Van Hilleary be the TN-06 Republican nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.