Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47b41290840c9a266ca2fb8619249627fe47399e2b9ca73bbb6bc17220650bd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 42,796$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,293$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.27 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 822.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…6f1fbacked Yes | 10c | 742.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed Yes | 18c | 711.32$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.97 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…c53fbacked Yes | 12c | 597.39$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 12c | 581.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 8c | 568.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…2335backed Yes | 2c | 514.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 11c | 508.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 467.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 5c | 451.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 439.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 15c | 435.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed Yes | 12c | 423$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 10c | 412.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 398.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 9c | 369.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…e15abacked Yes | 7c | 362.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 338.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…6863backed Yes | 14c | 320.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 8c | 308.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 17c | 295.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 25c | 268.76$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ce…48eebacked Yes | 9c | 266.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…0d41backed Yes | 14c | 247.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 9c | 221.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…0430backed Yes | 9c | 211.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 13c | 208.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 14c | 188.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 185.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 11c | 174.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 9c | 171.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…9a07backed Yes | 16c | 168.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…ec3abacked Yes | 11c | 167.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d7…846cbacked Yes | 7c | 166.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 14c | 159.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 9c | 159.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 9c | 158.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 10c | 155.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949f…3bbebacked Yes | 12c | 152.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d4…23e8backed Yes | 12c | 134.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…9fbabacked Yes | 11c | 131.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed Yes | 12c | 120.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…d63ebacked Yes | 17c | 119.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…47dbbacked Yes | 12c | 115.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 10c | 114.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3afe…075dbacked Yes | 15c | 109.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8e…af43backed Yes | 10c | 103.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x962f…28efbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3f…5330backed Yes | 13c | 97.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 11c | 91.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…4cf3backed Yes | 17c | 89.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aeb…df1ebacked Yes | 15c | 85.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 18c | 85.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…def2backed No | 75c | 85.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 18c | 83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 24c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…24aabacked Yes | 17c | 72.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 22c | 52.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…d8a6backed Yes | 23c | 50.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 56c | 33.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 32c | 32.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…6c26backed No | 80c | 23.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 72cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.