TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,458
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,808

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,458 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c5,144$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.63,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea9…7927backed Yes42c1,155$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.688151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes26c748.66$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.512,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes23c632.12$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.1156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes10c563.8$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.787,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes13c434.94$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.898,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes17c406.48$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.651,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes32c405.97$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.876,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30e3…700dbacked No53c400$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1901060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes13c320.51$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.982,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes9c308.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9613010.8%14 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes28c308.83$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.831,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes14c301.92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2712329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes25c271.35$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.063834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes10c249.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9333018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes8c244.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5336819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e2b…3d17backed No75c243.77$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.158762.1%54 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes10c220$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2214338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No78c218.36$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.174,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes35c215.22$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4126265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4056118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes17c192.69$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.491,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes20c170.04$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5145127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0774…e15abacked Yes20c168.31$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.961216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No70c163.2$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c159.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.112,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes23c158.33$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.361,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes18c156.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.537728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b5…47bfbacked No65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8517633.5%59 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3d7…846cbacked Yes17c149.65$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.05333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed Yes18c148.11$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.266137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe358…0822backed Yes13c140.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.26837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes13c140.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.081,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes32c138.05$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4826828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No33c137.82$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0269520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x025c…5b44backed Yes21c130.78$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.066624.2%16 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c130$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.092,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1881…d72cbacked Yes11c123.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.82119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-66.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4674…03cabacked No77c107.47$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.722185.7%18 W · 3 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+37.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes56c101.8$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3914645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes19c99.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8516320.2%33 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb185…48c1backed Yes17c97.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5119720.8%41 W · 156 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes20c95.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1385330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb02f…24aabacked Yes11c93.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa329…db02backed No80c92.98$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6875%6 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed No66c91.28$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3536648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes15c90.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0259125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No71c89.75$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2762555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes57c87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5916335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd53…25e7backed Yes19c85.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes25c78.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8825536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes21c75.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8829770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c71.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.032,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes16c68.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.761,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No75c68.28$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.82,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed No77c54.17$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4626253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa631…7651backed Yes22c50.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0610225.5%26 W · 76 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x872c…40e0backed No79c50.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1915345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No40c49.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6321848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No78c41.48$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.017,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdfb…f641backed No77c38.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.049164.8%59 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4791…3b1abacked No76c38.69$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.32552%13 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes46c38.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.851,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No78c37.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.163,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No79c37.24$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8729558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No79c37.05$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6711874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb4…695fbacked No79c35.71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.485773.7%42 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No72c33.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.191,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No79c32.62$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.778969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked No78c31.42$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.915836.2%21 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcafd…b861backed No75c31.2$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.847272.2%52 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dbb…c0abbacked No68c30.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.99551.6%49 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No44c30.83$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3611925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c29.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.278663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d5…5a62backed Yes34c29.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.082642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No79c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.884,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No78c27.84$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.131,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe471…6604backed No50c27.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7612856.3%72 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No75c20.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1721676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x620b…fca3backed No75c20.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.052347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe95b…5997backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ea…86cabacked No63c18.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.661968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No79c15.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1940777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.748672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.