TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,780
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,734

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,780 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes5c3,068$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.254,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes15c841.8$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea9…7927backed Yes30c812.58$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.648151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26eb…c940backed Yes3c799.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.091729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes8c624.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes25c563.75$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.6617633.5%59 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes7c506.16$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0356721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc575…d68ebacked No71c433.86$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.26862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c357.53$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes24c350.22$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0624216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes4c349.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes19c331.76$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.251,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes12c299.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+56.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes9c289.65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4425742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes15c278.54$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1169520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes39c273.94$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7923035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes8c272.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.126,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No77c269.49$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9667158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…50febacked Yes41c262.46$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.242020%4 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-49.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes11c207.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.367,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes9c205.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.538,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c193.02$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.543,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes18c184.2$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.461,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes25c169.13$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.811,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes27c159.54$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.141,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes28c159.09$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5453437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes10c143.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0934319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No77c139.52$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.641,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes26c128.57$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9222028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No74c119.88$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6641070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8be2…214bbacked Yes31c119.68$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.243520%7 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-55.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes15c117.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.651,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes32c117.28$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes22c115.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2167633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes19c112.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4494919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes18c110$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.022,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes22c104.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0559440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No70c103.98$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.271,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes21c103.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.963,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes23c102.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2713424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019123.6%45 W · 146 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d5…f41abacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd39…43a8backed Yes32c99.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9912317.9%22 W · 101 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed No73c99.14$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7711956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe731…55b9backed Yes29c96.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.863847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No67c95.81$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5231542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes30c94.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9112735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x799c…3bedbacked Yes23c94.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.582330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17bd…9a07backed No70c90.74$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.68475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+53.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes30c87$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.12920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes18c86.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6523022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ada…4908backed Yes23c79.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.467959.5%47 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9012…cb82backed Yes44c78.34$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa530…88f6backed Yes24c77.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.678531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes29c76.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.221,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes28c75.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3230428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes18c72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.731029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33c…bf48backed Yes29c67.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.482326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes20c67.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1193034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes22c62.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8318035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed No78c61.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6336648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c59.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.594,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40e…f3cfbacked No67c54.54$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No72c53.17$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8927167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No63c50.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6912329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c2…36bcbacked Yes35c50.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes35c50.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6714632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes29c50.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.629341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5348.8%3 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-76.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x91b3…0568backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No58c49.64$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8532652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefc8…4676backed Yes37c49.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.341942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No77c48.85$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2435168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x713b…e96abacked No61c46.81$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.251471.4%10 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes31c46.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.436625.8%17 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb81…7b82backed Yes39c45.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8613053.1%69 W · 61 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No71c43.84$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.577,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe358…0822backed No68c42.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.93837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.62419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cb6…2ff6backed No62c38.79$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.749943.4%43 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes28c38.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.681,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6733…45febacked No73c37.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.221090%9 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick69cpaid+32.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed No78c37.38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.368149.4%40 W · 41 L-8.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes39c35.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0917643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfb…f641backed No70c34.77$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.329164.8%59 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6b6…3addbacked Yes39c33.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98e9…a2f8backed No76c32.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7611872.9%86 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9907…ca66backed No57c31.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.513046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15b7…1929backed Yes36c30.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No66c29.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.278663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2121…0e3fbacked Yes41c27.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-69.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No58c26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.929,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No65c25.9$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No58c25.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7928737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4a3…fc4abacked No74c25.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5713059.2%77 W · 53 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x318b…d827backed No60c25.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.082934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.3wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-35.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1520…4218backed No59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x805a…ff74backed No67c22.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.265255.8%29 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No76c20.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.92,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.