Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63129e980f3b87991db5a7678d26efdc26d3ef121380e40977f904fbf5039e2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 44c | 1,116$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.48 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…a079backed Yes | 78c | 884.99$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.69 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 60c | 415.89$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.11 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 44c | 382.27$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.34 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e3…b16dbacked Yes | 60c | 356.8$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 56c | 305.76$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked No | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 41c | 261.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 61c | 207.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 35c | 142.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 79c | 135.76$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…a8f6backed Yes | 62c | 135.66$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 17c | 131.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 38c | 73.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 35c | 66.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 18c | 63.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed No | 42c | 63.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dae…0590backed Yes | 65c | 51.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 34c | 44.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 67c | 40.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 70c | 40.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed No | 41c | 36.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked Yes | 62c | 35.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 50c | 20.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 66c | 20.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…d073backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…bee7backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.