Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x759b4b712b195a13edfa7982b44c9d9835f08ad73cb0bcd3bb069d71e4a40810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 28c | 1,938$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.82 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 64c | 1,807$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…7d25backed Yes | 35c | 434.87$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 40c | 374.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.78 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 23c | 359.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 35c | 279.63$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 159.95$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 34c | 145.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 144.52$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 32c | 137.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 130.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 28c | 111.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 53c | 95.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 50c | 84.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 60c | 84.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2c…0c32backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 68c | 56.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 53.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 77c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 46.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed Yes | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…73f3backed Yes | 30c | 39.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 61c | 27.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 50c | 24.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…5391backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…d0e5backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?this page
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 57.0 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be below 49.0 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 49.0 and 49.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 50.0 and 50.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.