Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe96b9d9850cc3e5b6db7fdfe1be3e8e03e9a327f416943eab7909d075804f3e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 17c | 393.52$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.49 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…1392backed Yes | 17c | 335.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 8c | 243.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed No | 48c | 41.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in July?this page
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 57.0 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be below 49.0 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 49.0 and 49.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 50.0 and 50.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.