Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f91aa79637a1d9f73fd4e769373235ed9d3dd3be0d223c3937fe6846dcef178
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 72c | 752.71$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 15c | 448.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 75c | 339.69$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.72 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 22c | 257.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 24c | 217.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…6798backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 32c | 136$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 125.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a6…0135backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 84.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf656…782abacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 75c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 72c | 61.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked No | 73c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 64c | 17.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?this page
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 57.0 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be below 49.0 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 49.0 and 49.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 50.0 and 50.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?No won
- Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.