Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddda289587f6db8b36dc5463c25ad86ae91d3b3a62806465aeca150098bec2c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,919$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 31c | 1,544$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.41 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 1,096$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.05 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 32c | 902.79$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 28c | 827.22$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.12 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 80c | 662.29$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.47 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 19c | 512.43$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 23c | 485.8$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 476$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 374$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 26c | 360.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 347.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 25c | 325.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 324.25$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 292.98$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 291.03$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 30c | 278.87$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.22 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 19c | 265.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 232.93$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 19c | 229.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 190.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 7c | 182.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 182.3$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 72c | 179$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 178$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 13c | 154.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 65c | 153.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 143.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…60ccbacked No | 69c | 143.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 143.3$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 138.07$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 77c | 136.35$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 20c | 135.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cad…b739backed Yes | 33c | 134.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 31c | 133.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 19c | 130.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…7a9bbacked Yes | 33c | 130.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 128.83$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 127.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 8c | 126.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 37c | 125.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 122$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 121$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 119.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 113$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 29c | 102.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 99.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 96.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 27c | 94.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 94.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 32c | 90.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 72c | 87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…408ebacked Yes | 33c | 78.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 31c | 77.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 65c | 77.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 75.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 69c | 69.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 69c | 69.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 72c | 67.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…5cf7backed Yes | 30c | 66.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…434fbacked Yes | 19c | 62.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 32c | 62.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…a71abacked Yes | 36c | 61.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 59.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 58.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…835ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 51.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 50.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 35c | 50.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…8c45backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d15…4a14backed Yes | 30c | 49.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 48.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 28c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 21c | 47.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 45.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 33c | 45.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 43.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 43.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 70c | 42.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 34c | 42.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 35c | 42.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 39.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 38.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 32c | 37.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 73c | 36.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 35.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…ce3dbacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 35c | 34.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 32.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.