Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98f2d255a388c24431367eb14d40aa84ceb92a685da8a8dbb4eeb949ef73da24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 956.8$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 13c | 697.15$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 24c | 653.11$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.01 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 566.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 540.23$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 54c | 508.86$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.09 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 474.74$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.29 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 406.24$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.51 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 32c | 308.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.74 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 304.66$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.03 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 300.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 268.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 5c | 258.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 253.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 244.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 32c | 190.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.37 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 17c | 171.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.59 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 77c | 160.27$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 31c | 143.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 47c | 131.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 131.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 21c | 131.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 58c | 123.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 76c | 118.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed Yes | 17c | 118$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.94 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328b…0863backed Yes | 17c | 115.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +494.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 16c | 109.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…ff2fbacked Yes | 18c | 108.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 57c | 105.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 32c | 105.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.27 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed No | 14c | 100.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 25c | 96.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 52c | 86.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 33c | 83.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 67c | 82.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 15c | 81.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 27c | 80.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 46c | 79.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 79.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked No | 16c | 69.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5013…765abacked Yes | 16c | 69.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +283.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed No | 15c | 68.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 37c | 61.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 40c | 58.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 29c | 57.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 54.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed No | 32c | 50.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 80c | 37.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 57c | 36.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 32c | 35.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 59c | 34.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 79c | 32.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 29.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 29.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 79c | 29.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 69c | 22.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…3f50backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.