Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x061f6e36653d65b2637b841655516c9a6e3f11650e9b2bbcb7f6127c7280fc0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 1c | 2,550$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 1c | 2,179$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,110$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.84 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 7c | 1,029$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 4c | 458.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 33c | 304.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 302.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.78 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 300.91$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 297.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 293.84$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.28 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 248.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 6c | 236.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 41c | 225$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 207.9$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 73c | 205.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 59c | 185.32$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 178.02$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 62c | 167.95$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…60ccbacked Yes | 42c | 155.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 39c | 152.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 63c | 148.45$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 142.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 131.76$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 38c | 115.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 114.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 43c | 102.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…c495backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 47c | 97.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 39c | 89.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 86.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 26c | 84.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 63c | 82.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 78.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 77.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 32c | 77.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 40c | 76.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 41c | 76.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 56c | 74.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 29c | 72.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 61c | 69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed Yes | 29c | 68.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…835ebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 61c | 61.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 59.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 68c | 58.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 58.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 43c | 55.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 53.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 30c | 52.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 50.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 50.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 54c | 50.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…8c45backed Yes | 22c | 49.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 22c | 48.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 46.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 45.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 42.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 76c | 41.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 40.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 57c | 40.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 54c | 40.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 38.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 42c | 38.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 36.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 39c | 36.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…ce3dbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 34.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 30c | 34.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 46c | 33.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 32c | 32.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 57c | 32.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 31.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 65c | 30.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 63c | 28.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 28.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 55c | 25.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 23.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 21.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 56c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 61c | 18.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 18.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 75c | 18.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 71c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.