Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x564564bf6bcd76cd5df03bdd40da7e9aab66412c08a7856825503cb886ac972f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 2,007$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.51 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 50c | 1,288$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.54 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 1,032$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.79 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 42c | 787.22$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.12 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 664.42$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 537.8$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 524.23$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.94 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 433.22$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 401$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 38c | 341.48$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.48 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 52c | 315.55$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.32 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 55c | 300$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 41c | 275.65$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.94 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 273.83$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.57 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 272.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 270$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.36 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…a7ecbacked Yes | 47c | 267.9$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…8c45backed Yes | 32c | 261.26$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed No | 65c | 238.52$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.82 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 61c | 211.09$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.77 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 203.96$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 33c | 177.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.07 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 42c | 162.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 56c | 160$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed No | 68c | 146.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 51c | 143.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 143.14$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 50c | 134$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed No | 75c | 133.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 24c | 128.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 127.34$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 120.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 109.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 102.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 101.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.34 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 21c | 101.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 99.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 75c | 93.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 77c | 90.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 89.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 88.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…972dbacked Yes | 40c | 87.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 22c | 87.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 34c | 85.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 72.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 64.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 36c | 63.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 75c | 63.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 60.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…60ccbacked No | 52c | 60.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 54.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed No | 56c | 54.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 54.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 34c | 54.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 52.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 51.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 20c | 51.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…d2b4backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 79c | 49.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 74c | 46.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 46.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed No | 66c | 44.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 71c | 43.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 43.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 42.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 26c | 41.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…bdbabacked Yes | 43c | 38.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 31c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 61c | 35.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 33.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed Yes | 58c | 32.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 65c | 32.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 31.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 71c | 31.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 30.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 30.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 67c | 29.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c1…a853backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 43c | 26.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 59c | 25.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 66c | 24.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 61c | 23.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 57c | 23.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 58c | 22.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.