Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fc0c417d2765406005d204c067278d71c81a1c0f3152297bf19902fe4be8ffd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,200$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 12c | 2,009$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.94 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 14c | 1,926$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.15 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 9c | 1,172$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.19 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 955.22$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 11c | 927.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 14c | 793.55$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 18c | 755.29$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.17 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 14c | 540.72$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 9c | 450.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 408.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 10c | 400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 399.25$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 14c | 385.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 339.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 8c | 298$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 264.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 80c | 263.72$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 251.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 231.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Yes | 19c | 195.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 21c | 192.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 14c | 191.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…b34abacked Yes | 14c | 191.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…d6a7backed Yes | 14c | 191.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 14c | 191.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 187.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 6c | 180.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…50f6backed Yes | 18c | 169.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 10c | 158.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 152.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 14c | 148.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 18c | 137.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 14c | 111.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 15c | 99.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 98.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed Yes | 16c | 98.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 21c | 96.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 90.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…31b8backed Yes | 19c | 73.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 21c | 62.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.