Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb745ede102a358c55c3020eaa45442553198bf3ed4448b56794c9570fc0e05a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 42c | 1,879$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.37 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,036$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 39c | 907.83$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.09 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 51c | 735.63$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.58 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 36c | 617.14$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.43 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 66c | 599.56$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.71 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 43c | 587$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.21 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 560.32$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 49c | 552.36$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.99 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 59c | 483.76$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.17 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 438.08$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 43c | 400$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.84 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 391.2$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 47c | 380.33$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 60c | 334$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.6 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 41c | 313.09$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.2 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…972dbacked No | 62c | 294.7$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 292.57$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 284.49$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.51 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 26c | 275.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 43c | 264$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 75c | 263.17$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 245$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.97 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 64c | 227.02$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 43c | 218.34$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 46c | 215.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 53c | 214.87$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 211$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 207.31$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 45c | 207.13$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed Yes | 65c | 200.02$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…f433backed No | 48c | 199.97$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 198.4$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed No | 57c | 185.45$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 183.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 55c | 182.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 170.62$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 43c | 166.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 163$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…60ccbacked Yes | 45c | 159.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 49c | 159.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 149.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 51c | 131.02$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 122.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 46c | 110.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 65c | 106$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 50c | 100.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…1992backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 48c | 98.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 58c | 95.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 60c | 93.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 60c | 91.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2308…6c79backed Yes | 58c | 90.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1046…a534backed Yes | 40c | 88.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 88.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 26c | 87.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 18c | 81.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 53c | 78.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 78.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 19c | 76.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 54c | 67.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 75c | 66.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 64.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…fec5backed Yes | 77c | 63.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 48c | 63.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 61.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 60c | 61.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Yes | 50c | 60.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 52c | 59.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 62c | 57.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 57.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 55.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 54.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 43c | 53.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 51.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked Yes | 42c | 47.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…835ebacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed Yes | 51c | 47.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 46c | 47.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 46c | 47.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 65c | 45.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 46c | 44.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 51c | 42.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.