TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on July 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,865
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,865 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes36c1,542$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.551,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No64c940.59$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.938,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes39c832.02$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.6810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No63c669$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.474,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c590.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.598,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes45c481.09$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.431,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0da…3ff6backed No58c425.44$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4217658%102 W · 74 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbb…2e57backed Yes47c319.15$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.151457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes47c282.89$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.244,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No59c187.5$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.812,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes36c168.38$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.984,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No61c168.06$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5566944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No57c165.65$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.662,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb39c…60ccbacked Yes45c160.12$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.072138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Yes38c131.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6514945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No65c106$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.071,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes42c105.54$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.561,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5548…9cc6backed Yes60c104.96$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7619757.4%113 W · 84 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No67c101.36$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes45c95.77$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9381558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No66c87.03$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.011,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No71c87$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.024,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No64c85.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.321,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No64c74.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.956,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x65f7…86ddbacked No63c72.34$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5725758%149 W · 108 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c70$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.83,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes44c68.32$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.25,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed No65c68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4226441.3%109 W · 155 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes47c61.18$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.643,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No54c60.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.632,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51b8…2202backed Yes38c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.42846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c0…53d5backed Yes37c59.89$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.997847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes33c59.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.721,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No54c58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.321,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes35c56.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.244,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No61c53.76$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.962,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No47c53.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2799962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No64c49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.281,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed No63c48.83$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8517759.9%106 W · 71 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x868b…f600backed Yes41c48.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.643158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c48.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.213,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c46.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4ea4…4990backed No57c45.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.954228.6%12 W · 30 L-7.5wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-54.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No56c45.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.479,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4565043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes44c44.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.171,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes44c43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.891,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes45c41.61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.783,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No67c41.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.372,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.634,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No56c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.63,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No64c38.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.851,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes46c37.17$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0716242.6%69 W · 93 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85aa…691bbacked No56c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4122…f0d5backed Yes40c34.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.711546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c34.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.794,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd519…3823backed Yes38c33.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.882231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.331,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed Yes41c31.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.551156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6041…b027backed Yes60c30.28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.133060%18 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.92,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked Yes47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9817352%90 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.91,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.846232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No66c29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1499571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63b0…4122backed No67c29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.438561.2%52 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x191e…ef6bbacked No64c25.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.263256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No62c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.513845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56e3…9a51backed No40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010830.6%33 W · 75 L-10.5wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No58c24.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.151,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes46c23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.374,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No68c22.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.221,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No54c22.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1291861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed No71c22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6231564.8%204 W · 111 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.34,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a5f…7014backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.63619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-43.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1bee…50ccbacked No72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.45448.1%26 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c19.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.591,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.