Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e2f7e725b6f1320a4e18b010ce075620a5ed41a9db38af85302dba80012bd11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 1,800$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.18 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 35c | 1,684$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.18 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 454.98$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 59c | 425.45$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.67 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 420.35$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 371$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 351.95$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 29c | 341.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 299.98$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 271.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 232$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 51c | 227.83$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.67 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 191.43$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 186.54$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 172.57$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.38 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 153.89$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 67c | 144.02$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 55c | 122$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 117.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 28c | 115.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 65c | 107.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 104.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 102.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 69c | 101.13$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 55c | 99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 95.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 69c | 92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 72c | 88.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 87.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 57c | 85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 79.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 71.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 69c | 70.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 30c | 66.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 34c | 62.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 74c | 61.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 64c | 61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 57.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 45c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 54.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 47c | 54.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 52.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 58c | 51.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 42.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 74c | 40.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 34c | 40.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 28c | 38.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 35c | 37.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 75c | 35.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 57c | 34.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…3823backed Yes | 39c | 33.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 80c | 33.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 36c | 28.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 57c | 28.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 28.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 27.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 60c | 27.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 46c | 27.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 27.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 26.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 60c | 26.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 22.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…a080backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 18.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…53d0backed No | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 106°F or higher on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 104-105°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.