Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1d643a138276157d20621486b319d8e2614ae6e4a650eb8ebc177f8ac82ed86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 22c | 448.37$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.9 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 27c | 412.27$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 362.66$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 26c | 358.93$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 336.85$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 18c | 333.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 53c | 314.95$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.47 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 261.63$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 247.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 246$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 15c | 237$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 33c | 215.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.69 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 194.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 28c | 176.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 74c | 161.29$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.15 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 52c | 160.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 152$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 142.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 32c | 125.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.87 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 121.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 119.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 44c | 117.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 104.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…c69cbacked Yes | 29c | 93.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Yes | 79c | 93.12$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 34c | 85.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 24c | 80.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 25c | 69.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 25c | 66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 67c | 62.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 62.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 56.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…8a92backed Yes | 27c | 55.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 71c | 54.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 37c | 54.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 48.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 31c | 48.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 48.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 78c | 42.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ea…fe59backed Yes | 38c | 39.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 75c | 39.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 43c | 36.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 34.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 30.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 71c | 24.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 21.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 71c | 20.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.