Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe9c5f4aa7c549ae8dea6df542e39dd9f13d9fc8e66fce18e677bcd20f61347
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 54c | 1,970$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.14 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 38c | 1,549$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.11 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 976.74$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.47 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 532.26$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 513.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…2e57backed Yes | 60c | 499.12$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 453.01$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.15 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 418$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.66 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 367.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 43c | 337.31$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.02 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 49c | 303.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 296.84$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.29 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 295.88$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 56c | 295$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.2 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 32c | 274$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.32 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 41c | 243.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.09 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…60ccbacked No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 39c | 197$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 35c | 176.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.07 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 29c | 160$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 32c | 147.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.03 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 135.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 134$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 52c | 129.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 117.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 114.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 111.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 105.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 57c | 104.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 101.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 51c | 100.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 93.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 38c | 89.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 48c | 86.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 48c | 85.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 43c | 84.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 32c | 82.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 37c | 80.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 54c | 77.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed Yes | 67c | 74.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 68c | 73.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 71c | 70.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 58c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 41c | 64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 60.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 35c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 56.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 52.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 51.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 62c | 50.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 30c | 46.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…64a4backed No | 33c | 42.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…576dbacked No | 44c | 41.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 41.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed No | 50c | 39.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 38.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 37.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…45f8backed Yes | 38c | 36.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 59c | 35.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 43c | 35.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 36c | 35.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 52c | 33.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 53c | 32.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 47c | 30.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 34c | 30.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 35c | 30.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.