TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,199
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,991

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,199 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes54c1,970$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.1431043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5500…b4f6backed Yes38c1,549$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.1117536%63 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes40c976.74$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.471,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No60c532.26$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.254,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes43c513.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.598,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbb…2e57backed Yes60c499.12$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No60c453.01$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.152,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No63c418$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.662,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes41c367.49$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.1210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No43c337.31$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.0237056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes49c303.77$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1591,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No39c296.84$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.294,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No36c295.88$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.584,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed Yes56c295$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.29238%35 W · 57 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No32c274$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.324,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb3a…d3e3backed No41c243.09$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.095786%49 W · 8 L+11.2wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+33.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb39c…60ccbacked No46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1082138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes39c197$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.831,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No35c176.29$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.071,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No29c160$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.864,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes51c160$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.21,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5548…9cc6backed No32c147.08$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0319757.4%113 W · 84 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No48c135.98$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.764,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No63c134$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48c0…53d5backed Yes52c129.45$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.87847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No51c120$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.631,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes39c117.25$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.643,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No44c114.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No58c111.58$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.868,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed No46c108.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6926744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes55c105.25$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes57c104.68$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1816532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No49c101.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.015,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes51c100.8$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4181558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf035…052abacked No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5415529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5417637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5442547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.514946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b58…d734backed No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5415534.2%53 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6017633.5%59 W · 117 L-34.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No31c93.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.099,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No38c89.48$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.112,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No48c86.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0188628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes48c85.53$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.351,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes30c85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.446,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed No43c84.66$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2935264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No32c82.83$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.052,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No37c80.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.242,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No54c77.22$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.571,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b73…02c0backed Yes67c74.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502035%7 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes68c73.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9429948.2%144 W · 155 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No56c72$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.443,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes71c70.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.91,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No47c70$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No62c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.689557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes58c65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.75457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No41c64$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.769153.8%49 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No39c62$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.995,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No58c60.01$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.41,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed30…87b1backed No59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.618549.7%92 W · 93 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.23,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2454253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No35c58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.562,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No52c56.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.24,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes57c56$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.922,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No29c52.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.221,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No32c51.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.211,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf21…e0c1backed No39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2811163.1%70 W · 41 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No62c50.34$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1388973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.519259.4%114 W · 78 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f94…0b53backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2321352.1%111 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No30c46.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.622,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a2e…64a4backed No33c42.82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.646361.9%39 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a02…576dbacked No44c41.47$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.363023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No39c41.16$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.116,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.82,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb546…ca22backed No31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5520660.2%124 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.614745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48c8…4ccabacked No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.43,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b8d…f707backed No50c39.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.733056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes52c38.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No63c37.71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.951,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2583…45f8backed Yes38c36.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.97520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No44c36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.34,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No59c35.73$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.651,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No43c35.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2882268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No36c35.11$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.382,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf92…150fbacked Yes52c33.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3616440.2%66 W · 98 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb259…9207backed Yes53c32.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1111027.3%30 W · 80 L-22.3wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes49c30.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No47c30.35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.222,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No34c30.33$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.152,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No35c30.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.622,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.19158.2%53 W · 38 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1667336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.