Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Shevrin Jones be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69f1677e58628670b035d4a2d08ffdbb0e25ea9bcd6cec43041b4f4031baf663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,550$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 56c | 1,226$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.95 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 80c | 781.81$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.21 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 35c | 753.48$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.65 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 30c | 663.33$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.23 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 30c | 619.48$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.1 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 16c | 518.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.54 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 501.08$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 20c | 475.45$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.77 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 379.56$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.37 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4834…5f7abacked No | 33c | 347.81$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +198.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 293.83$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.08 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 15c | 288.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 24c | 255.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.66 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 11c | 249$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.16 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 19c | 247$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.82 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 245$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 221$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 75c | 208.25$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 34c | 189.17$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.68 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 64c | 181.78$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 40c | 175.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 26c | 170.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.87 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 13c | 163.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.95 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 14c | 161.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 151.05$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 18c | 124.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 111.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0beb…4503backed No | 19c | 111.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 111$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 102.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…f1dbbacked Yes | 80c | 100.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x815a…af37backed Yes | 36c | 96.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 21c | 96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 58c | 90.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 21c | 89.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 46c | 87.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 83.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 63c | 82.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 14c | 81.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed No | 32c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 22c | 75.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 18c | 74.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 67.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 20c | 50.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 47.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 25c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…5614backed No | 73c | 37.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ef…91fdbacked No | 65c | 33.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed No | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedcb…54b1backed No | 35c | 28.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed Yes | 54c | 20.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked No | 61c | 20.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x291a…a405backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…8147backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7503…ece8backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 17.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e3…8327backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 79c | 14.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shevrin Jones be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Kendrick Meek Jr. be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Oliver Gilbert be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.