Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Oliver Gilbert be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x776841ce97b44b91d4da6cf9e0c6ffa43d79c17ad037732abc2191960897d1f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 49c | 2,249$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.01 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 46c | 1,038$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.94 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 792.74$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.45 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 30c | 709.56$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.09 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 49c | 709$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.85 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 54c | 626.92$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.54 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 27c | 544.34$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.51 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 14c | 438.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.51 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 71c | 433.61$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.75 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 406.23$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.6 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed No | 38c | 340$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 65c | 296$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 272.08$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 250.95$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.23 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 40c | 242$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 239.79$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.36 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 63c | 217.47$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 194.4$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.18 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 26c | 188.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 65c | 169.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 35c | 161.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 39c | 158.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 154.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 7c | 152.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.44 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.86 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 138$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.84 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 12c | 125.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +174.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 47c | 124.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 14c | 107.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 107.06$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 72c | 104.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 102.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 48c | 100.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 47c | 92.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 29c | 83.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 59c | 75.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 63c | 74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815a…af37backed No | 45c | 72.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 54c | 71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 17c | 69.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 32c | 69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 37c | 67.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 37c | 64.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 38c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 80c | 58.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 34c | 57.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedcb…54b1backed Yes | 25c | 43.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed Yes | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed No | 54c | 20.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Yes | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oliver Gilbert be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Kendrick Meek Jr. be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Shevrin Jones be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.