AI · resolved market
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1336e6fdd8d480e18fcecb997c38150cf2e9b7c60e39460cf8794d258b705dc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e91…6007backed No | 5c | 1,968$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,835$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 12c | 1,337$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.53 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 8c | 1,197$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 6c | 1,144$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…94c0backed No | 24c | 1,096$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 49c | 894$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.41 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed No | 8c | 892.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 881.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 15c | 658.15$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 55c | 627.36$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.56 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 7c | 577.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed No | 9c | 524.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 64c | 516.05$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.24 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 7c | 405.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…bffcbacked No | 23c | 404.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 6c | 401.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked Yes | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 5c | 366.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 6c | 324$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.04 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 299.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…d398backed Yes | 9c | 285.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.05 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.30per pick | 28cpaid | +122%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 30c | 253.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 230$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…d527backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +213.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked No | 17c | 199.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…063ebacked No | 10c | 191.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…841fbacked Yes | 75c | 186.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…9698backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc402…5645backed No | 24c | 155.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9821…3da1backed Yes | 79c | 154.18$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 16c | 150.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 20c | 147.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…090dbacked Yes | 34c | 121.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 18c | 121.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…0708backed No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 16c | 101.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…891abacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e06…710fbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 19c | 94.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 18c | 93.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…0720backed No | 16c | 93.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed No | 13c | 83.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…e9d1backed Yes | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4557…bf49backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +406.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca5…296abacked Yes | 75c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6975…b13bbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 60c | 46.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…bd49backed No | 32c | 40.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…3681backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 68c | 37.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 68c | 36.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4b…e0f4backed Yes | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbd…50aebacked Yes | 67c | 22.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 68c | 21.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8654…f2dfbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf53…2d61backed Yes | 76c | 19.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.