AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d35741ce5a95496b157667542491b72d7d54b7062a8f574aeea5ff171ad730d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 4c | 25,670$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.38 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 1c | 21,751$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.39 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed Yes | 1c | 7,912$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 7,327$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,091$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 5,984$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,613$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526f…62babacked Yes | 2c | 3,218$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…efc0backed Yes | 2c | 2,798$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698f…4f41backed Yes | 1c | 2,594$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed Yes | 1c | 2,356$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…063ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,823$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,602$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,412$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…66a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,025$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 923.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 6c | 900$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f8…0f44backed Yes | 10c | 535.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 373.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…d527backed Yes | 43c | 220$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +213.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8350…1439backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 92.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 76c | 40.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Meituan have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.