Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a6f5652484da6e22602452c6b7319170897eed7a8c73b4d2a28b6922f95be26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 56c | 5,092$2,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,839.4 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 44c | 3,390$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.41 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 42c | 1,500$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.99 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 1,143$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.16 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 749.16$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed No | 39c | 738.6$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 481.97$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 34c | 354$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 325$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 324.23$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked Yes | 61c | 298.34$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.43 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 270.52$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 63c | 263.14$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 45c | 208.73$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 204$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 61c | 183.6$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 178.19$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 54c | 172.19$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 40c | 155$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 57c | 150$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 63c | 144.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 58c | 140$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 75c | 137.08$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 135.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 55c | 125.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 38c | 124.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 32c | 124$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 116.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 63c | 103.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf35…3574backed Yes | 44c | 100.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…fb74backed Yes | 44c | 99.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 98.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 91.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 89.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 37c | 89.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cad…b739backed Yes | 44c | 86.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 62c | 84.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 83.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 16c | 80.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…17bcbacked Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 79.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 54c | 78.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 57c | 75.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 66c | 75.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 37c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked No | 16c | 62.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb5…3d4fbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 42c | 57.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 40c | 56.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2790…6331backed Yes | 40c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 44c | 50.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 59c | 49.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 48.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 46c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 44.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 50c | 40.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 55c | 40.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a63…0e48backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 39c | 36.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 41c | 36.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 35.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 32.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 32.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 32.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 38c | 31.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258a…dca3backed Yes | 67c | 31.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 66c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 48c | 28.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked No | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 40c | 26.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 75c | 26.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 23.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.