Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x435255a7a25e14f9dbf880f9047afe9367c580687c4261770a4790d067f27dea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 34c | 2,033$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.26 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 29c | 935$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.44 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 833.06$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.42 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 800.17$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 610.81$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 62c | 493$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 422$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 59c | 384.61$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.65 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 5c | 304.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 292.2$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 24c | 261.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 235$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 13c | 199.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 39c | 166.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 153.22$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 60c | 153.15$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 143.75$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 136.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 9c | 133.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 125.18$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 123.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 40c | 116.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 23c | 106.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 104.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 21c | 96.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 60c | 96.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 39c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 17c | 93.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 26c | 91.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 21c | 70.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 63.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 57c | 49.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 49.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 47.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 68c | 45.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0d…2a37backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 39.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3476…8b53backed Yes | 42c | 37.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed No | 77c | 36.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 37c | 35.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 77c | 35.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 29c | 35.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…a859backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 62c | 28.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 38c | 26.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…28f8backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 72c | 16.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 67c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 80c | 15.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.