Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd4ad69612cb5bffcd17a09fece369a3b54c172cc5f0b94e1fdbd29bfc8a6f76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 3,105$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 2,384$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 1,814$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,181$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 525.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 58c | 422.81$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.62 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 415.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 11c | 406.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 19c | 359.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 339.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 48c | 302.74$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.82 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 286.28$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 267.3$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 15c | 234.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 12c | 207.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 12c | 164.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 42c | 162.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 38c | 139.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 135.16$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 33c | 132.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 10c | 130.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 78c | 126.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 16c | 109.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 28c | 105$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 104.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 10c | 102.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 88.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 22c | 87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 60c | 83.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 16c | 82.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 22c | 75.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 69.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 22c | 68.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 16c | 67.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 61c | 56.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 51.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 64c | 50.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 68c | 44.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 64c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 74c | 32.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 75c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 71c | 23.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x962b…6d5abacked No | 79c | 22.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 64c | 19.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 79c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 64c | 15.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.