MLB · resolved market
Will Shea Langeliers be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef6df25f11bda50161f95cfc7801a409b71fffab979a0546fffdf0055027848d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 6c | 3,210$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed No | 68c | 581.88$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.42 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked Yes | 14c | 320$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 437 | 49.9%218 W · 219 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 16c | 283.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 9c | 187.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 13c | 107.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shea Langeliers be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?this page
- Will Byron Buxton be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?No won
- Will Casey Mize be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?Yes won
- Will Francisco Lindor be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?No won
- Will Freddy Peralta be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?Yes won
- Will Jarren Duran be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?No won
- Will Jeremy Pena be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?No won
- Will Joe Ryan be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?No won
- Will Josh Hader be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?No won
- Will José Soriano be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?Yes won
- Will Jung Hoo Lee be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?No won
- Will Kevin Gausman be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?Yes won
- Will Mason Miller be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?No won
- Will Mike Trout be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?No won
- Will Reid Detmers be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?No won
- Will Robbie Ray be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?Yes won
- Will Ryan Jeffers be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?No won
- Will Tarik Skubal be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?Yes won
- Will Zach Neto be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.