TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will José Soriano be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,940
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,313

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,940 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes56c723$404 inWon+$318.723745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+75.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No44c500$220 inLost-$2206440.6%26 W · 38 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes39c232.15$90 inWon+$142.212651.6%65 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccad…46ecbacked No45c222.22$100 inLost-$1001338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed No60c188$113 inLost-$113.0440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5482…d1f6backed Yes56c90$50 inWon+$39.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa98e…daa3backed Yes24c80$19 inWon+$60.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes54c80$43 inWon+$36.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes55c79$43 inWon+$35.551136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-48.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed Yes52c77.15$40 inWon+$37.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11bb…8472backed No68c70$48 inLost-$47.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc676…f35cbacked Yes51c60$31 inWon+$29.225550.2%128 W · 127 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d00…0121backed No64c46.7$30 inLost-$29.891844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4700…854bbacked Yes55c45$25 inWon+$20.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1491…fd70backed No65c40.2$26 inLost-$25.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked No64c21.1$14 inLost-$13.5130%0 W · 13 L-4.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes55c20$11 inWon+$98330.1%25 W · 58 L-9.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-47.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed No64c20$13 inLost-$12.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c6e…2960backed No71c20$14 inLost-$14.110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…b86fbacked Yes55c20$11 inWon+$91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba0f…1011backed Yes55c20$11 inWon+$91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed Yes55c20$11 inWon+$9650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56d3…e307backed No76c20$15 inLost-$15.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes55c20$11 inWon+$91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.