Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ab87fd1ede898485d99754317b15139043d4f271d27826d7e15f25fbb11b388
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,287$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 64c | 772.16$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.1 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 600.7$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 473.9$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.85 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 10c | 455.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 56c | 442.32$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.38 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 39c | 390.74$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.15 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 319.75$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 64c | 292.63$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.98 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 256.66$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 232.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 36c | 229.56$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 38c | 228.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 59c | 204.49$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 9c | 203.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 192.29$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 43c | 179.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 39c | 141.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 14c | 135.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 38c | 124.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…6743backed Yes | 67c | 109.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 65c | 105.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 105.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed Yes | 46c | 99.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 99.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes | 45c | 99.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked Yes | 17c | 98.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 34c | 96.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 37c | 95.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 92.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 53c | 90.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked Yes | 49c | 88.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed Yes | 32c | 83.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 64c | 83.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 30c | 83.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 44c | 82.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 59c | 81.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x924a…1dd8backed No | 64c | 80.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 43c | 80.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 43c | 77.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 72.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 58c | 69.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 43c | 65.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 44c | 64.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 55c | 62.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 66c | 62.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 60.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 62c | 60.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 40c | 58.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 34c | 57.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 30c | 56.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed Yes | 31c | 53.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 50.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…9eccbacked Yes | 67c | 50.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 41c | 50.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 32c | 49.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 57c | 49.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 62c | 48.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 48.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9944…437cbacked No | 35c | 48.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +189.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 55c | 47.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed Yes | 40c | 46.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed Yes | 32c | 46.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 44c | 44.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e23…bedcbacked Yes | 37c | 42.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 46c | 42.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes | 42c | 40.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 71c | 40.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 54c | 39.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked Yes | 45c | 39.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 38c | 38.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 41c | 37.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…dfdbbacked No | 36c | 37.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 33c | 36.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 54c | 36.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 39c | 36.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 38c | 35.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 70c | 34.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 33.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 42c | 32.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 42c | 32.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 52c | 32.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 57c | 31.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd937…102dbacked Yes | 39c | 31.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 57c | 30.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 66c | 29.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 41c | 29.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 50c | 29.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 57c | 29.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 60c | 29.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 54c | 28.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 44c | 27.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 61c | 27.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 52c | 27.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.