TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on April 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes4c1,287$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.762,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No64c772.16$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.142857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b82…b217backed Yes3c700$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.214134.8%49 W · 92 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes42c600.7$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.4617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No64c473.9$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.851,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes10c455.97$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.811,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes56c442.32$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.388151.9%42 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes39c390.74$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.151,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No49c319.75$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.428,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes64c292.63$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.9831341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No62c256.66$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.6212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes27c232.76$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.086,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes36c229.56$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7160523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes38c228.43$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.989122%20 W · 71 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No59c204.49$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.81,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x883f…0634backed Yes9c203.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.187536%27 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c192.29$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.84,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes43c179.83$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6610617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5314637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…42a6backed Yes39c141.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.713826.3%10 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes14c135.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.131442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed Yes38c124.89$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9310247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ab8…6743backed Yes67c109.71$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.461030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-58.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes65c105.92$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3446733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes23c105.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.787,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.692,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes42c99.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c4…b153backed Yes46c99.94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.644864.6%31 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes48c99.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3965043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes45c99.03$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.573135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff65…f1cdbacked Yes17c98.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.975518.2%10 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed No34c96.5$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0585330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes37c95.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9913930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No58c92.65$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.263,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No53c90.64$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0233450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked Yes49c88.41$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9114961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7515…0f90backed Yes32c83.88$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.515954.7%87 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No64c83.81$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4735843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes30c83.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.721,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes44c82.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5329640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No59c81.85$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9259440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x924a…1dd8backed No64c80.13$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.05728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-56.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes43c80.11$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.331029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked Yes43c77.27$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5716740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c72.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.287,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No58c69.16$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.058160.5%49 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes43c65.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.315047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes44c64.39$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3230141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a4c…1116backed No55c62.64$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.198851.1%45 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes66c62.16$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7316651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes37c60.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.421,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No62c60.78$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.127167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes40c58.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2330046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1746…24a5backed Yes34c57.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.715520%11 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes30c56.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0756721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf075…3f43backed Yes31c53.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510866.7%72 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes32c50.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.559125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x358a…9eccbacked Yes67c50.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.85850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes41c50.24$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7920835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked No32c49.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.951,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4a3…fc4abacked No57c49.74$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3913059.2%77 W · 53 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f88…da69backed No62c48.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6117949.2%88 W · 91 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes38c48.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.668335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9944…437cbacked No35c48.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+189.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda7b…3c9fbacked No55c47.08$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9812567.2%84 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ddc…a869backed Yes40c46.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.643450%17 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x072f…86b1backed Yes32c46.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.811151.4%57 W · 54 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes44c44.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.672,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e23…bedcbacked Yes37c42.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.92933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8209…62b6backed Yes46c42.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.499625%24 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes42c40.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.992623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No71c40.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6229558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No54c39.51$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.147442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1efd…2cbdbacked Yes45c39.41$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.664955.1%27 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x105c…1011backed No38c38.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6111220.5%23 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes41c37.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.583132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b77…dfdbbacked No36c37.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.772740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes33c36.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9918650.5%94 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No54c36.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7631868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x174c…4351backed Yes39c36.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.136028.3%17 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes38c35.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5414617.1%25 W · 121 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x540f…4bf4backed No70c34.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.326467.2%43 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes37c33.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1203…3947backed Yes42c32.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7515639.7%62 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes42c32.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7510537.1%39 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc9f…b4e1backed No52c32.56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.67153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No57c31.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.71,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked Yes38c31.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd937…102dbacked Yes39c31.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a5f…7014backed Yes57c30.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.233619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-43.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes66c29.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7721448.6%104 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes41c29.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.288229.3%24 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd08…1831backed Yes50c29.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.835433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No57c29.07$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.57468.9%51 W · 23 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No60c29.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7254966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d52…c5aabacked No54c28.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1910359.2%61 W · 42 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes44c27.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.351631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No61c27.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7863656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes52c27.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.491,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.