TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,083 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes1c2,569$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5216832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes8c1,710$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9885330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes6c1,133$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.171,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes11c810.04$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6138515.6%60 W · 325 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes16c791.18$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.448,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes13c780.49$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9856721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef98…7926backed Yes5c599.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3042315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x305d…88e2backed Yes56c576.32$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.115736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a18…364cbacked No39c524.59$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.128946.1%41 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes61c486.95$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.061637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf954…dec8backed Yes24c419.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.81442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes38c320.7$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.281,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No63c273.09$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.34,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes22c268.06$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.621,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes13c263.88$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.657,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c241.72$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.636,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c227.08$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8796…eb9fbacked No63c222.93$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.071586.7%13 W · 2 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick61cpaid+41.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes12c203.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.842419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe280…dafbbacked Yes14c179.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.861233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No9c176$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.1616740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c173.03$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.693,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes7c172.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.723022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.672,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76f3…53edbacked No63c155.05$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes16c150.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes24c148.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9834219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe731…55b9backed Yes33c146.36$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.253847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No79c141.9$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.011,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe689…159fbacked No22c141.2$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2920342.9%87 W · 116 L+20.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+55.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes17c139.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0931442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff9b…6a02backed Yes58c132.7$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6215834.2%54 W · 104 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes11c129.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.861679%15 W · 152 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No48c128.12$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.51,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes28c124.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.376848.5%33 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa739…e31abacked No78c116.06$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.044953.1%26 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes22c106.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes13c103.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.381,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x302c…108abacked Yes25c102.57$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.824837.5%18 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1c9…6872backed Yes64c100.46$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.12857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcab1…7244backed No78c98.55$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.483100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No76c97.6$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.421,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No76c96.32$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1241070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb5…57eabacked No78c92.91$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.73933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2de…ff4fbacked Yes12c89.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.786460.9%39 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes23c89.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No80c82.53$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8631868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No30c80.83$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2534618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No79c79.21$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.542,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba1a…4f62backed Yes24c78.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.47520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No47c72.41$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4821068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No72c71.94$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.031,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c67.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.989,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a4c…1116backed Yes20c67.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.288851.1%45 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No76c64.63$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5119259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc601…4120backed Yes29c64.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes33c61.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.154148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes40c56.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3711833.1%39 W · 79 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5889…1927backed No70c56.06$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.86683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes33c52.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125731.6%18 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc342…c744backed No39c48.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.745349.1%26 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes26c47.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2926434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No27c46.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9945162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes26c46.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9268335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ee…23a6backed No76c44.74$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.743562.9%22 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes25c43.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.119734%67 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No66c39.41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.314,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ce…7f30backed No62c37.82$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3516065.6%105 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe509…7387backed Yes34c36.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.332722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes48c35.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.851,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf585…aae1backed Yes37c32.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.11931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes58c31.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2126142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked No77c31.19$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.264062.5%25 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick68cpaid+6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x997f…000abacked No80c31.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2214548.3%70 W · 75 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba21…1122backed No66c29.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.07955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No76c28.81$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.87,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe84…20e0backed No76c28.77$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.915154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f6…f045backed No80c28.68$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.823580%28 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick75cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No72c28.68$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1563656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27a3…ba31backed No68c27.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.67580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes61c26.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8913554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdfb…f641backed No75c26.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.519164.8%59 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No63c23.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7514961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0408…3d68backed No65c19.58$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8521262.3%132 W · 80 L+20.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeca9…8952backed No73c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.375062%31 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.517978.8%141 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick78cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.