Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x598f080cd8ea79d7a3d2b197aaa74f69cb350b50b0d0fe4acd4f81e1388b8030
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 1c | 2,569$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 8c | 1,710$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.98 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,133$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 11c | 810.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 791.18$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 13c | 780.49$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 5c | 599.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 56c | 576.32$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.11 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 39c | 524.59$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.12 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 61c | 486.95$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…dec8backed Yes | 24c | 419.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 38c | 320.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.28 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 273.09$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 22c | 268.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 263.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 241.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 227.08$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…eb9fbacked No | 63c | 222.93$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 12c | 203.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…dafbbacked Yes | 14c | 179.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 9c | 176$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.16 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 173.03$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 7c | 172.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…53edbacked No | 63c | 155.05$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 150.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 24c | 148.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 33c | 146.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 141.9$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 22c | 141.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.29 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 17c | 139.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 58c | 132.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 11c | 129.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 48c | 128.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 28c | 124.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 78c | 116.06$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 106.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 103.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 25c | 102.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Yes | 64c | 100.46$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…7244backed No | 78c | 98.55$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 76c | 97.6$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 96.32$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb5…57eabacked No | 78c | 92.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked Yes | 12c | 89.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 23c | 89.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 80c | 82.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 30c | 80.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 79.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…4f62backed Yes | 24c | 78.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 47c | 72.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 71.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 67.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed Yes | 20c | 67.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 76c | 64.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc601…4120backed Yes | 29c | 64.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 33c | 61.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 40c | 56.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5889…1927backed No | 70c | 56.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 52.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 39c | 48.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 26c | 47.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 27c | 46.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 26c | 46.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…23a6backed No | 76c | 44.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 25c | 43.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 39.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 62c | 37.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…7387backed Yes | 34c | 36.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 48c | 35.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…aae1backed Yes | 37c | 32.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 58c | 31.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 77c | 31.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 31.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba21…1122backed No | 66c | 29.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 28.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 76c | 28.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed No | 80c | 28.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 72c | 28.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…ba31backed No | 68c | 27.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 61c | 26.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 75c | 26.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 63c | 23.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 65c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.