Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfef2bbe6ee049d467864ac3214e1952c8a2e6f0ab0aad1c7afe1f99460fc9b4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 10c | 983.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 5c | 825.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 15c | 541.29$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 468.76$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 50c | 379.03$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.25 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed Yes | 50c | 341.07$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.4 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked Yes | 71c | 315.21$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.71 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 304.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 57c | 302$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.61 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 5c | 286.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…6c85backed No | 10c | 262.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 10c | 252.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 14c | 231.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 47c | 230$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.1 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed No | 37c | 178.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked No | 11c | 163.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 10c | 159.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 39c | 152.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e5…89e9backed No | 19c | 148.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…11aabacked No | 20c | 134.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 45c | 133.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d51…10babacked No | 13c | 132.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 28c | 126.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked No | 31c | 124.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 69c | 99.18$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 19c | 96.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 29c | 85.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed Yes | 17c | 85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…636abacked No | 33c | 81.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85eb…8f73backed Yes | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdee7…724cbacked No | 31c | 64.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 56c | 61.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4faf…94acbacked No | 58c | 60.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 20c | 59.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 27c | 48.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 69c | 45.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 80c | 45.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 37.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 74c | 24.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 69c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 55c | 21.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed No | 58c | 20.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…b41bbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 52c | 19.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.