Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1266ffc68d339e5934dd4b61ca10f7c190c0e4ab09b03bfee6b8fdf189dba15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 1,577$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 3c | 991.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 652.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 590.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 559.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 459.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 2c | 431.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 421.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 18c | 389.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 9c | 279.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 17c | 221.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 19c | 181.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e5…89e9backed Yes | 10c | 173.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 7c | 170.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…747bbacked Yes | 15c | 166.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +208%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 10c | 141.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 9c | 126.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d6…88b8backed Yes | 9c | 125.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 9c | 124.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 12c | 99.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 12c | 91.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 21c | 83.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.