TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO5) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof Vitality, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,502,185
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,612,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,502,185 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 432 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee17…b46ebacked Vitality80c100,000$80,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,000450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed PARIVISION13c78,283$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0008243.9%36 W · 46 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa643…d43dbacked PARIVISION19c75,000$14,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,249.932733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed PARIVISION20c67,949$13,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,49012649.2%62 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked PARIVISION19c67,255$12,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,778.4813633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed PARIVISION20c51,098$10,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,107.9923839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Vitality79c42,792$33,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,978.114362.8%27 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5faf…1183backed PARIVISION22c33,892$7,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,300.1110935.8%39 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked PARIVISION10c33,333$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,333.2827133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked PARIVISION22c32,718$7,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,197.9715050.7%76 W · 74 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked PARIVISION12c28,581$3,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5321,62944.8%730 W · 899 L+4.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed PARIVISION19c26,046$4,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,888.21323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked PARIVISION20c25,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00022654.9%124 W · 102 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed PARIVISION19c21,289$4,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,046.1314441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c0…692bbacked PARIVISION20c20,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9006048.3%29 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Vitality77c18,388$14,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,137.4212847.7%61 W · 67 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed PARIVISION20c17,724$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50016732.9%55 W · 112 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdba8…9accbacked PARIVISION19c15,781$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,998.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked PARIVISION5c14,727$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.714928.6%14 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed PARIVISION18c14,354$2,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,583.776152.5%32 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Vitality75c13,252$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,251.983351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x115f…e217backed PARIVISION19c12,600$2,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,393.991030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed PARIVISION18c12,071$2,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,172.7811046.4%51 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked PARIVISION20c11,063$2,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,180.932,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked PARIVISION22c10,122$2,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,27019834.8%69 W · 129 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed PARIVISION20c10,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95019645.4%89 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed PARIVISION22c10,000$2,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,196.131,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed PARIVISION9c9,795$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.3538037.4%142 W · 238 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked PARIVISION18c9,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.9612736.2%46 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf053…3939backed Vitality80c8,700$6,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7405867.2%39 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed PARIVISION0c8,323$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.978549.4%42 W · 43 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked PARIVISION18c8,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.9928538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3bc…c824backed PARIVISION19c7,995$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,501.86757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed PARIVISION20c7,632$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010047%47 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked PARIVISION19c7,389$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.963,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9079…420cbacked Vitality80c7,226$5,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.2710153.5%54 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed PARIVISION20c6,899$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.7911241.1%46 W · 66 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed PARIVISION19c6,893$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.5288242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbed2…d00bbacked Vitality80c6,620$5,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.975750.9%29 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked PARIVISION20c6,442$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.3823932.2%77 W · 162 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Vitality77c6,197$4,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.312462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x419f…2da0backed PARIVISION22c6,177$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.334339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked PARIVISION20c6,132$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.529127.5%80 W · 211 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Vitality80c6,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20072046.1%332 W · 388 L-2.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed PARIVISION19c5,789$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10035236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed PARIVISION19c5,532$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.9924846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6395…d69dbacked PARIVISION13c5,357$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.4111241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b07…96febacked PARIVISION4c5,073$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.75464.3%2 W · 44 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-74.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa43f…fc07backed PARIVISION6c4,824$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.81717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-51.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4da1…e6dfbacked PARIVISION20c4,790$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95810446.2%48 W · 56 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf54c…e6ccbacked PARIVISION10c4,772$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006934.8%24 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked PARIVISION20c4,532$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.172,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed PARIVISION18c4,500$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.9997240.7%396 W · 576 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Vitality80c4,498$3,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.611758.1%68 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed PARIVISION3c4,445$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.1318724.1%45 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde67…bab9backed PARIVISION8c4,335$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.523644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1b…cd39backed PARIVISION20c4,252$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked PARIVISION18c4,071$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.718654.7%47 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04c2…68b1backed PARIVISION22c4,064$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.683933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb80…ab99backed Vitality80c4,000$3,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.75875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed PARIVISION19c3,910$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.94759.6%28 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed PARIVISION10c3,847$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.384,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1570…1404backed PARIVISION16c3,789$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Vitality80c3,750$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75012552.8%66 W · 59 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Vitality78c3,708$2,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.6926147.1%123 W · 138 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked PARIVISION13c3,540$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.4619231.3%60 W · 132 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed PARIVISION19c3,500$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6601,42333.6%478 W · 945 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked PARIVISION6c3,484$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.814142.6%60 W · 81 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9170…718bbacked PARIVISION19c3,418$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed PARIVISION19c3,400$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Vitality77c3,200$2,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73685358.3%497 W · 356 L+60.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Vitality80c3,113$2,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44fc…9728backed Vitality80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.044755.3%26 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a75…f947backed PARIVISION4c3,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7048…282dbacked PARIVISION20c2,990$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5982661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x213f…1da2backed PARIVISION29c2,879$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.610244.1%45 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde44…cb51backed PARIVISION25c2,820$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed PARIVISION19c2,800$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5191,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Vitality79c2,756$2,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.4829647.6%141 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked PARIVISION19c2,738$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52916846.4%78 W · 90 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed PARIVISION17c2,674$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44936742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55af…0715backed Vitality79c2,660$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.531872.2%13 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed PARIVISION12c2,611$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.2455232.4%179 W · 373 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe949…33bebacked PARIVISION20c2,600$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5202650%13 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5019…74cdbacked PARIVISION19c2,566$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.3611630.2%35 W · 81 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed PARIVISION13c2,507$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.9246340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked PARIVISION12c2,500$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.4616240.1%65 W · 97 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked PARIVISION18c2,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4505234.6%18 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked PARIVISION13c2,450$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32552834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION16c2,443$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.476,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4925…a69abacked PARIVISION14c2,158$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.2210331.1%32 W · 71 L-0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed PARIVISION19c2,105$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8737…72babacked PARIVISION19c2,105$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001838.9%7 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dde…9d98backed PARIVISION5c2,092$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.023348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+35.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked PARIVISION15c2,030$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31319043.7%83 W · 107 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8541…a367backed PARIVISION17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34028344.2%125 W · 158 L+17.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed PARIVISION17c1,882$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.8910335.9%37 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35ea…99bcbacked PARIVISION16c1,830$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.313657.4%78 W · 58 L+0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe566…4943backed PARIVISION6c1,813$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.811650%8 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed PARIVISION18c1,809$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.6446343.2%200 W · 263 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.