TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof Vitality, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$613,925
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$806,684

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $613,925 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 314 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8375…ba1dbacked Vitality55c48,726$26,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,926.66848.5%33 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4f33…06b1backed Vitality71c39,583$27,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,626.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked PARIVISION34c23,201$7,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,869.513,25650.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L+97.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION9c22,800$2,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,101.843,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed PARIVISION45c19,058$8,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,575.9311655.2%64 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked Vitality55c16,000$8,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,199.9619757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed PARIVISION29c15,510$4,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,497.777943%34 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked PARIVISION2c15,001$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.9522927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed PARIVISION7c13,173$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.1411240.2%45 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed PARIVISION39c12,674$4,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,967.551,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked PARIVISION37c12,651$4,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,617.682,20547.6%1,049 W · 1,156 L-4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked PARIVISION45c10,877$4,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,944.6859839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed PARIVISION33c10,747$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,509.9981843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked PARIVISION42c10,000$4,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,201.793,21751.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L+89.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed PARIVISION25c10,000$2,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,502.924,22049.2%2,078 W · 2,142 L+61.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked PARIVISION6c9,337$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.1935850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked PARIVISION56c8,956$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick52cpaid-55.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0bb9…9dd0backed Vitality74c7,762$5,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,014.194173.2%30 W · 11 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0e3…dd00backed PARIVISION32c6,728$2,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,133.852236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…1a4ebacked PARIVISION28c6,345$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776.584630.4%14 W · 32 L-9.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xac9c…50d8backed PARIVISION0c5,319$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5325416.9%43 W · 211 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked Vitality69c4,336$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.4965250.5%329 W · 323 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed PARIVISION6c4,001$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.4156822.5%128 W · 440 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-5.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed PARIVISION28c4,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.9913043.1%56 W · 74 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked PARIVISION25c3,851$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.5327133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked PARIVISION55c3,669$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0009552.6%50 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Vitality64c3,663$2,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.547738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc622…bbedbacked PARIVISION19c3,557$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.2150%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed PARIVISION6c3,504$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.985,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed PARIVISION18c3,500$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.161,27721.9%280 W · 997 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa5d…ab88backed PARIVISION3c3,437$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb0…3c1fbacked PARIVISION35c2,835$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.254346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed PARIVISION12c2,829$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.7458651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Vitality72c2,800$2,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78425555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Vitality52c2,537$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.6411643.1%50 W · 66 L-13.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked PARIVISION21c2,501$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.121,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x866f…d410backed PARIVISION2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506521.5%14 W · 51 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed PARIVISION29c2,351$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.5810335.9%37 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked PARIVISION7c2,290$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15552837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee4…6d32backed PARIVISION54c2,194$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.731811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-48.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Vitality67c2,183$1,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.732433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-42%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked PARIVISION26c2,181$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.091,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Vitality62c2,156$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.531,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Vitality45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10045058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698e…104fbacked PARIVISION32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed Vitality57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.8933452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x213f…1da2backed PARIVISION53c1,947$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03910244.1%45 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked PARIVISION21c1,937$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.2619030.5%58 W · 132 L-12.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed PARIVISION29c1,852$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53024346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfec0…aeb9backed Vitality68c1,842$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.442642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed PARIVISION29c1,762$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51119643.4%85 W · 111 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked PARIVISION26c1,716$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.965234.6%18 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION9c1,661$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.316,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Vitality55c1,601$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.512,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb849…bce6backed PARIVISION4c1,572$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.578222%18 W · 64 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked PARIVISION8c1,523$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3869624%167 W · 529 L+2.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Vitality57c1,506$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.2361737.9%234 W · 383 L-22.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked PARIVISION28c1,500$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42061228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked PARIVISION8c1,498$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.624538.4%94 W · 151 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a9d…df59backed PARIVISION4c1,489$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.644134.1%14 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+23.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Vitality67c1,456$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.472,77037.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L-139.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed PARIVISION29c1,410$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.3985446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ab6…ee04backed Vitality76c1,398$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.422955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked PARIVISION29c1,390$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.140950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked PARIVISION32c1,386$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.847047.4%223 W · 247 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe36…7dfebacked PARIVISION5c1,333$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8a4…ab0ebacked PARIVISION4c1,300$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.44613%6 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed PARIVISION40c1,287$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51527744.4%123 W · 154 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a8…bdc6backed Vitality60c1,237$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.6110753.3%57 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6395…d69dbacked PARIVISION41c1,184$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.7911241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dde…9d98backed PARIVISION2c1,140$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.73348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+35.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed PARIVISION7c1,109$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5124233.9%82 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed Vitality53c1,096$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.2324944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23b2…ce61backed Vitality52c1,091$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.028065%52 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PARIVISION10c1,081$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.957,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b4…e861backed PARIVISION2c1,056$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.162650%13 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+108.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed PARIVISION5c1,050$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.331,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed PARIVISION44c1,049$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.0712259.8%73 W · 49 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed PARIVISION43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.710053%53 W · 47 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd752…85d4backed Vitality62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38036837.5%138 W · 230 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf43d…bb69backed PARIVISION32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-67.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8da…a6e6backed Vitality67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3302458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked PARIVISION29c900$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26417042.9%73 W · 97 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION39c881.32$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.164,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed PARIVISION32c864.46$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.976648.5%32 W · 34 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe200…5886backed Vitality78c830.07$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.0712955%71 W · 58 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed Vitality56c800$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35526451.5%136 W · 128 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…8506backed PARIVISION2c786.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.97812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4013…406bbacked Vitality73c778.81$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.2815063.3%95 W · 55 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Vitality57c771.37$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.6981751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed PARIVISION33c757.58$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25014532.4%47 W · 98 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x064e…4347backed PARIVISION28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008537.6%32 W · 53 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Vitality67c699.98$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.9914355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd07c…26fdbacked PARIVISION29c697.86$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.382236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa195…8c92backed PARIVISION31c684.65$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.939138.5%35 W · 56 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked PARIVISION32c625$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016846.4%78 W · 90 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed PARIVISION43c623.52$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.7919850.5%100 W · 98 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed PARIVISION31c600$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18638868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce6e…420cbacked PARIVISION7c567.41$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked PARIVISION44c564.78$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25027530.9%85 W · 190 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.