TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof Vitality, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$770,293
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$785,282

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $770,293 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 371 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8375…ba1dbacked Vitality60c81,778$49,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,711.256848.5%33 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked PARIVISION22c81,627$17,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,825.3827133.2%90 W · 181 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION37c59,676$21,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,921.253,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked Vitality70c35,915$25,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,774.5219757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked PARIVISION30c33,394$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00013633.1%45 W · 91 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f33…06b1backed Vitality75c29,679$22,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,425.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Vitality75c25,234$18,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,308.5276058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed PARIVISION42c25,229$10,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,475.0481843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ec9…8d0bbacked Vitality74c21,864$16,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,654.29988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick67cpaid+42.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed PARIVISION28c18,987$5,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,290.434,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5ab…0fe6backed PARIVISION26c16,880$4,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,388.783253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked PARIVISION22c16,828$3,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,677.213,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked PARIVISION31c15,438$4,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.3959839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked PARIVISION27c14,021$3,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,795.382,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked PARIVISION13c13,083$1,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.7822927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e3…dd00backed PARIVISION25c12,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.992236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed PARIVISION32c10,306$3,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,290.4911240.2%45 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed PARIVISION21c10,260$2,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,163.371,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed Vitality71c10,000$7,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9004045%18 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed PARIVISION27c9,560$2,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,581.26634.8%23 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Vitality28c8,400$2,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,036.1632548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Vitality50c7,579$3,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,759.9610339.8%41 W · 62 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed PARIVISION40c6,327$2,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,538.7413043.1%56 W · 74 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Vitality72c6,223$4,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,765.812,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Vitality73c5,396$3,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.847738.4%183 W · 294 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b9a…3f5fbacked Vitality79c5,000$3,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.1423653.4%126 W · 110 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Vitality75c4,844$3,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.9812153.7%65 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked PARIVISION34c4,596$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5799552.6%50 W · 45 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked PARIVISION21c4,376$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.658259.8%49 W · 33 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed PARIVISION26c4,319$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.9522554.2%122 W · 103 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed PARIVISION29c4,000$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.9714441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51bb…a919backed PARIVISION31c3,912$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2087749.4%38 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c7…620cbacked PARIVISION26c3,837$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.5214144%62 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed Vitality50c3,653$1,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.831275%9 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Vitality67c3,642$2,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.653,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed Vitality50c3,619$1,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,791.6110047%47 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed Vitality67c3,561$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.216953.6%37 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Vitality71c3,498$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.7611643.1%50 W · 66 L-13.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe459…737dbacked PARIVISION35c3,344$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.62742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd56b…342dbacked PARIVISION37c3,183$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.3811443%49 W · 65 L-12.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-24.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Vitality42c3,000$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,732.51,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked PARIVISION36c2,880$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.7239249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed PARIVISION25c2,866$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.1797040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Vitality77c2,680$2,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.1914355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8a8…bdc6backed Vitality71c2,631$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.7110753.3%57 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a6…9837backed Vitality44c2,563$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,438.074643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…b30bbacked PARIVISION31c2,482$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.689546.3%44 W · 51 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Vitality54c2,114$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.7741850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked PARIVISION28c2,025$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.051,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed PARIVISION50c2,002$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00025747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd752…85d4backed Vitality56c2,000$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.3736837.5%138 W · 230 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PARIVISION37c1,979$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.877,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Vitality70c1,873$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.7961837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed PARIVISION38c1,795$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.2122142.5%94 W · 127 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked Vitality64c1,723$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.7765650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9095…2f3fbacked Vitality61c1,670$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.58852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked PARIVISION25c1,660$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.1129046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked PARIVISION30c1,634$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.8461228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked PARIVISION50c1,633$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82052837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed Vitality58c1,600$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66626451.5%136 W · 128 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed PARIVISION57c1,500$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85558651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed Vitality63c1,491$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.2420332.5%66 W · 137 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb37a…1aa1backed PARIVISION27c1,427$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3802259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Vitality64c1,366$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.8424346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed Vitality74c1,350$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35115970.4%112 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked PARIVISION26c1,350$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.9922550.7%114 W · 111 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Vitality51c1,325$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.274,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Vitality71c1,301$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.337061.4%43 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb855…3332backed PARIVISION26c1,246$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.999832.7%32 W · 66 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked PARIVISION29c1,207$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.95234.6%18 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION42c1,140$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.376,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PARIVISION44c1,114$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.4645058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked PARIVISION34c1,100$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.929127.5%80 W · 211 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Vitality52c1,054$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.4833352.6%175 W · 158 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b9…e29fbacked Vitality76c1,041$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.783240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4013…406bbacked Vitality75c1,040$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26015063.3%95 W · 55 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked PARIVISION67c1,013$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.2247147.3%223 W · 248 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed PARIVISION25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25060853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ca…b467backed Vitality73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2709769.1%67 W · 30 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked PARIVISION35c979.17$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.6710442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked PARIVISION24c934.45$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.2781244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb08…06acbacked Vitality75c909.76$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.448351.8%43 W · 40 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed PARIVISION44c908.53$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.4938868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa43f…fc07backed PARIVISION14c907.03$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.511717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-51.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed PARIVISION27c904$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.125,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed PARIVISION27c881.96$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.2985446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed PARIVISION42c868.05$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.3554732.2%176 W · 371 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked PARIVISION25c860$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2151,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9777…6b53backed PARIVISION25c821.48$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.0419732.5%64 W · 133 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Vitality76c800$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19044648.4%216 W · 230 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Vitality60c791.68$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.6781751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Vitality73c787.28$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.2815162.3%94 W · 57 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Vitality67c785.84$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.9217042.9%73 W · 97 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae65…70debacked PARIVISION29c739.34$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.415940.7%24 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked PARIVISION15c739$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.852,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d82…72febacked Vitality65c716.87$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.681485.7%12 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+56.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed PARIVISION42c714.68$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004953.1%26 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x848d…efbebacked PARIVISION57c710.99$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.9140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Vitality57c700$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.2941716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4925…a69abacked PARIVISION18c666.66$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5410331.1%32 W · 71 L-0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.