Commodities · resolved market
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74686395e62a73a6b59cf1a6f2132af745224b5c8cf0d5ee053e4c59c7930d81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,532 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc88…45d4backed No | 61c | 6,553$4,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…60afbacked Yes | 69c | 6,452$4,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,441.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9913…21cfbacked Yes | 39c | 5,075$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 5c | 4,124$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.22 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 73c | 3,256$2,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.88 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,720$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,670$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 15c | 2,418$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.25 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed No | 29c | 2,260$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 31c | 1,769$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.94 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…8c35backed Yes | 1c | 1,594$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 9c | 1,259$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,176$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5c…288abacked No | 78c | 1,116$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 77c | 1,100$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.11 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…bbefbacked Yes | 9c | 1,092$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…3c3bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,091$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 40c | 1,076$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.32 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 78c | 1,068$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.27 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a0…c047backed Yes | 44c | 1,060$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05d…cacdbacked Yes | 11c | 899.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 22c | 879.57$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.44 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 878.79$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.02 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 857.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed No | 79c | 793.75$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 23c | 743.35$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…3b37backed No | 64c | 742.69$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 34c | 706.1$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.34 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 59c | 683.76$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.05 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e0…4466backed No | 56c | 604.36$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 46c | 566.66$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.46 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 52c | 499.51$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.7 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…0959backed No | 54c | 463$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 46c | 463$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9be…8cd9backed Yes | 11c | 447.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked Yes | 47c | 445.29$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 428.37$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.97 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 12c | 419.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…ff6abacked Yes | 51c | 389.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 55c | 349.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dae…e45abacked Yes | 9c | 301$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd87f…efdbbacked Yes | 34c | 295.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 11c | 277.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd631…fff8backed Yes | 43c | 266.94$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed No | 64c | 265.98$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.89 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 9c | 253.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…8215backed Yes | 9c | 224.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +466.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…15aebacked Yes | 9c | 220.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 54c | 203.6$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.94 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdace…abe8backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…a5c3backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x757f…517fbacked Yes | 11c | 154.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 144.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f20…6a22backed Yes | 22c | 137.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed No | 23c | 128.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +358.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 34c | 128.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…9f72backed Yes | 8c | 126.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 33c | 121.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…c2c1backed No | 43c | 120.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fc…3dfebacked Yes | 46c | 112.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…cec1backed Yes | 32c | 111.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…68a7backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 11c | 109.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3431…2fe2backed No | 71c | 106.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…fe0ebacked No | 60c | 104.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…4e40backed Yes | 20c | 104.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…28a6backed Yes | 10c | 101.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 47c | 99.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…43e2backed Yes | 50c | 99.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 35c | 84.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3e…8745backed Yes | 59c | 84.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 37c | 81.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…14b0backed No | 64c | 77.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…5e87backed No | 62c | 70.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…7316backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…5664backed Yes | 27c | 69.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…41e2backed Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53d…9710backed No | 46c | 65.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ae…0095backed Yes | 47c | 63.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x360f…f29abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a11…ff3fbacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…e76cbacked Yes | 22c | 56.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 57c | 52.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 56c | 50.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…b25abacked Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…ac67backed No | 53c | 47.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…4cd5backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…0acfbacked No | 44c | 45.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 43.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 36c | 40.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d12…ab54backed No | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 32c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.