Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2025-12-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda584baa6807a777b7c1bd54bb7d880decd4f4686c0bdb6eec2d2baf0b2240b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 36c | 30,000$10,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,791.85 | 362 | 43.1%156 W · 206 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 69c | 14,566$10,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,471.53 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 49c | 13,594$6,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,933.19 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 76c | 9,367$7,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,279.18 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 43c | 3,509$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.19 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 13c | 3,500$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,045 | 275 | 42.5%117 W · 158 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 54c | 3,435$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.77 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked No | 46c | 3,300$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1c…a512backed No | 2c | 2,094$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 60c | 1,579$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.81 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 72c | 1,501$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.75 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…6307backed Yes | 22c | 1,263$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 32c | 990.86$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.44 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 45c | 815.33$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.88 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes | 26c | 571.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.9 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 15c | 456$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.6 | 297 | 42.8%127 W · 170 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 73c | 413.39$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.29 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Yes | 55c | 389.56$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.3 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0801…35cbbacked No | 26c | 386.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…d206backed No | 38c | 291.69$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.89 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 48c | 263.2$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…aa68backed Yes | 49c | 250.75$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 12c | 223.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.63 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Yes | 76c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 60c | 185.55$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked No | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Yes | 67c | 156.22$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 14c | 149.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…040abacked Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Yes | 13c | 145$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…9e83backed No | 53c | 134.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106e…8f8ebacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…3b0cbacked No | 45c | 113.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b4…dbf0backed Yes | 73c | 107.03$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 14c | 105.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 53c | 97.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 15c | 94.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -17.3wins | -0.28per pick | 33cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…1511backed Yes | 69c | 94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…5ba1backed Yes | 39c | 87.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 14c | 84.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 77c | 80.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 242 | 42.1%102 W · 140 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…cca8backed Yes | 70c | 78.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Yes | 57c | 75.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 57c | 68.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…50f6backed Yes | 80c | 64.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Yes | 56c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 50c | 58.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…cf19backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc712…3f88backed Yes | 73c | 46.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed No | 64c | 45.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 51c | 44.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…59bdbacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Yes | 69c | 38.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed No | 35c | 34.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 46c | 34.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdefc…62d8backed Yes | 33c | 33.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…8de5backed No | 52c | 33.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…6ae0backed Yes | 70c | 31.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Yes | 33c | 30.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a4…fcf2backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…e374backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked No | 79c | 25.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b52…3e37backed Yes | 70c | 22.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…b4fcbacked No | 50c | 21.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23f5…2991backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf45…5928backed Yes | 77c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 75c | 14.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 74c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2025-12-27?this page
- Will FC Famalicão vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Famalicão win on 2025-12-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.