Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Famalicão vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x426986ba44e721cf8c1391ac7ba1805503a40a4418b7147ae9c931a37cc5861d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 2,499$1,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.58 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 21c | 1,334$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.64 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…6307backed Yes | 31c | 915.22$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 23c | 868.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 830$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.55 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 77c | 709$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.07 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 22c | 426.14$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f31…2d48backed Yes | 24c | 398.88$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 257$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 74c | 248.47$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 245.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 32c | 231.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 29c | 205.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Yes | 12c | 193.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 77c | 173.69$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 10c | 124.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed No | 73c | 103.89$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aba…5aeebacked Yes | 23c | 95.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Yes | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Yes | 32c | 76.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 56.6%120 W · 92 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed No | 77c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 28c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 22c | 65.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 18c | 57.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…9e83backed No | 73c | 54.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 26c | 54.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…f8e1backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked No | 73c | 43.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…30c4backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…fd69backed Yes | 35c | 32.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Famalicão vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2025-12-27?Yes won
- Will FC Famalicão win on 2025-12-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.