Middle East · resolved market
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5299a291f2aaafadee5c937a76bc7810c6ac27c7ad87b223cb885258f2e0a320
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,959,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,907,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,959,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 1c | 142,304$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8f4cbacked Yes | 1c | 115,086$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 92,096$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.89 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe413…32d3backed Yes | 1c | 73,443$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.65 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 1c | 60,873$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.69 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed Yes | 1c | 46,938$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 1c | 42,038$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.82 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc06b…ef68backed Yes | 1c | 25,439$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…8cefbacked Yes | 1c | 24,269$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.19 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab06…689bbacked Yes | 1c | 23,980$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.38 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba9…a412backed Yes | 0c | 23,211$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 23,032$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.09 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.37per pick | 41cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…520dbacked Yes | 1c | 21,617$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.23 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes | 1c | 21,616$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…0547backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ce…4864backed Yes | 1c | 19,902$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3b…9dd5backed Yes | 0c | 19,654$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3f…0da3backed Yes | 0c | 17,750$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…3a18backed Yes | 1c | 15,700$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb00d…878cbacked Yes | 1c | 15,450$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8f…de96backed Yes | 1c | 14,153$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…bdfebacked Yes | 1c | 13,872$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 1c | 13,668$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 1c | 13,413$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -11.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…395bbacked Yes | 1c | 12,576$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5f…ef39backed Yes | 1c | 12,501$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b25…00a3backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa669…2c3cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe5…2ce7backed Yes | 1c | 12,117$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 1c | 12,111$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c72bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,771$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 1c | 11,250$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb130…a070backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 10,841$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Yes | 0c | 10,650$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…5332backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…476dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106e…8f8ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,109$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 1c | 9,056$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 9,020$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…4b2dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,911$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…5899backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…804dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 0c | 7,877$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,551$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 7,372$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe905…f4bebacked Yes | 0c | 7,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae52…405cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…9dc1backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173e…2d86backed Yes | 1c | 6,284$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…d03abacked Yes | 1c | 6,125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6929…4336backed Yes | 1c | 6,106$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…c504backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4200…7545backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6e…03ecbacked Yes | 1c | 5,841$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 0c | 5,655$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd15…b9e0backed Yes | 1c | 5,556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…1c3abacked Yes | 1c | 5,445$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6563…c9bcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,375$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 5,139$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691c…1227backed Yes | 0c | 5,050$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3939…68cfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,006$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a0…68fdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fc…08f8backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…f5fbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…a917backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd344…3196backed Yes | 1c | 4,997$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…749abacked Yes | 1c | 4,810$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…13eebacked Yes | 1c | 4,800$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…961abacked Yes | 1c | 4,727$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…07edbacked Yes | 1c | 4,684$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…20a3backed Yes | 1c | 4,607$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 1c | 4,571$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,510$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8690…46f7backed Yes | 1c | 4,448$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x693a…0ed9backed Yes | 1c | 4,167$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…be36backed Yes | 1c | 4,094$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…15a0backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c0…a83abacked Yes | 1c | 3,905$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…c84fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,857$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa449…c3cebacked Yes | 1c | 3,764$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d53…0a4ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Yes | 1c | 3,714$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…1f64backed Yes | 1c | 3,709$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd2…a384backed Yes | 1c | 3,614$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94dc…cc82backed Yes | 1c | 3,605$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 0c | 3,504$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 0c | 3,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf76e…b714backed Yes | 1c | 3,488$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d0…b246backed Yes | 1c | 3,450$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b30…8b4ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,350$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992e…904abacked Yes | 1c | 3,333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…887bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa29e…8e09backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b0…dfd5backed Yes | 1c | 3,300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3075…0440backed Yes | 1c | 3,284$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.