Serie A · resolved market
Will AC Milan vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x633279ddd836bda56376f406e6f07045361cf6f8dd469fb0c113ed1983e97182
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 80c | 1,643$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.67 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked No | 80c | 1,514$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.72 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 1,463$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.06 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…49b3backed Yes | 20c | 1,460$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…1b86backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 2c | 710.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 156 | 23.7%37 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…1bd3backed Yes | 20c | 665$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…d6a7backed Yes | 20c | 563$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked No | 80c | 443$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.6 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…70a0backed Yes | 29c | 427.77$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.03 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…0de9backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedc…8bcabacked Yes | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes | 19c | 156.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…a5cebacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…a9a3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…e374backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 80c | 83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 20c | 81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 14c | 78.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 129 | 29.5%38 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…d867backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 71c | 57.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x106e…8f8ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b1…cb72backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1e…945cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 29.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c7…e6abbacked No | 80c | 26.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Milan vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw?this page
- Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-28?Yes won
- Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2025-12-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.