Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon dip to $224 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb95b9c69a392ed12f9f4bcbe59d5692e99961f6699099cd3f67f9319395e56b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 25c | 800$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…748bbacked Yes | 25c | 586$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…2581backed No | 76c | 585.73$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 16c | 498$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.31 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 58c | 353.69$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.48 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed No | 40c | 303.71$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.18 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 46c | 170$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 129.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 34c | 120.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.92 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 72c | 118.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 41c | 110.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 75c | 70.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…8e0abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 45c | 37.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 60c | 34.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked Yes | 54c | 26.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon dip to $224 in January?this page
- Will Amazon dip to $192 in January?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $204 in January?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $216 in January?No won
- Will Amazon reach $240 in January?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $248 in January?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $256 in January?No won
- Will Amazon reach $268 in January?No won
- Will Amazon reach $284 in January?No won
- Will Amazon reach $300 in January?No won
- Will Amazon reach $320 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.