Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon reach $256 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96ab8394fde09d9cc65b0849adac268fa4163da2b1d963b4e0c4242a23ccadc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,430$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 80c | 1,004$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.74 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 33c | 936.52$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.04 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 14c | 399.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 68c | 300$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 117.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 15c | 116.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 112.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 10c | 108.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…1268backed Yes | 32c | 84.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 44c | 59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3631…7db6backed No | 60c | 21.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon reach $256 in January?this page
- Will Amazon dip to $192 in January?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $204 in January?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $216 in January?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $224 in January?No won
- Will Amazon reach $240 in January?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $248 in January?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $268 in January?No won
- Will Amazon reach $284 in January?No won
- Will Amazon reach $300 in January?No won
- Will Amazon reach $320 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.