Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon dip to $216 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x909e1f52d3899f6b6baffcf5006754b1a03bd0c6f9b49510aae0682521706567
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,761$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 23c | 2,758$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 57c | 1,002$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.85 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 2c | 569.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 68c | 553.98$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.21 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 66c | 484.15$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.68 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 439.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 56c | 260$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 72c | 240$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 20c | 199.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…f11abacked No | 55c | 146$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 13c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 19c | 133$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 9c | 115.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 22c | 74.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 73c | 52.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon dip to $216 in January?this page
- Will Amazon dip to $192 in January?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $204 in January?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $224 in January?No won
- Will Amazon reach $240 in January?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $248 in January?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $256 in January?No won
- Will Amazon reach $268 in January?No won
- Will Amazon reach $284 in January?No won
- Will Amazon reach $300 in January?No won
- Will Amazon reach $320 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.