Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb794cbd0173c39bd0b61520c06363b5d8c0fd940b9b89e1f7d7aede11a779c90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7233…9c2dbacked Yes | 33c | 3,677$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 54c | 3,510$1,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.12 | 1,325 | 46.9%622 W · 703 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 44c | 2,617$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.34 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,904$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 53c | 1,814$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.57 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 56c | 1,439$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.44 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 67c | 1,348$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.86 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 43c | 1,323$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.58 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked No | 25c | 1,203$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 63c | 900$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…4500backed Yes | 54c | 742.69$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.49 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 37c | 660.19$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.52 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 49c | 639.83$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.73 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 32c | 509$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.29 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 32c | 371.95$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.96 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d79…c80bbacked Yes | 65c | 367.7$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 68c | 339.04$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.22 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e9…8c20backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +669.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…4464backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 38c | 291.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 41c | 265.55$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.88 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…2842backed Yes | 12c | 231$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 24c | 204.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.17 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa854…3856backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked Yes | 59c | 198.22$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 15c | 198.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.56 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 45c | 195.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked Yes | 57c | 190$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.58 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe449…6dddbacked Yes | 23c | 181.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 179.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 65c | 172.31$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 12c | 166.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 34c | 165.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 159.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 169 | 49.1%83 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf11…5060backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea11…4135backed No | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…1429backed No | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bc…7742backed No | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…b09fbacked Yes | 51c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 42c | 137.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.72 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 63c | 137.41$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 135.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ab…ed57backed Yes | 17c | 114$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f14…40ebbacked Yes | 46c | 96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 27c | 92.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce58…89bfbacked Yes | 46c | 91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 27c | 90.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa17a…6889backed Yes | 46c | 87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f7…df14backed Yes | 46c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c5…60a6backed Yes | 46c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed No | 51c | 84.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 16c | 82.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…6f57backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…a765backed No | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 21c | 75.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5945…695bbacked No | 54c | 74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…c7a1backed No | 54c | 74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 27c | 73.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 56c | 72.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc83d…0eb9backed No | 54c | 71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f5…902fbacked No | 54c | 68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcd…fa45backed No | 54c | 68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…c75fbacked No | 54c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed No | 22c | 53.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…c9c8backed No | 62c | 50.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…c6efbacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d75…b263backed Yes | 41c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ceb…baefbacked Yes | 53c | 48.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 53c | 44.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0de…fc0dbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +198.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 41c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 46c | 31.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…e2b2backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…00e9backed Yes | 63c | 25.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…d6f2backed No | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 41cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 23.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 50c | 23.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 53c | 23.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 56c | 20.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…99cfbacked No | 58c | 20.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 62c | 16.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…3ca6backed No | 70c | 14.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of February?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $375 end of February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.