Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b67163f85cfe05dd1242de6e93b9de9c24640a0fc35decce4445b413017a4ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 68c | 3,546$2,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.21 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 29c | 1,830$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.06 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 10c | 1,705$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.18 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…e62abacked No | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…f596backed No | 72c | 834.17$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 13c | 749.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 66c | 643.09$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.6 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa5…85cabacked Yes | 73c | 622.21$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed Yes | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 31c | 330$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ceb…baefbacked Yes | 43c | 329.26$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.68 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e9…8c20backed Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +669.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…4464backed No | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…b4f1backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked No | 20c | 185.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd646…8dcabacked No | 6c | 179.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 26c | 178.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 174.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…d8cebacked Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 140.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…a53ebacked No | 17c | 138$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…2531backed No | 33c | 136$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…ffa0backed No | 33c | 132$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…a4c0backed No | 33c | 132$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c78…90c7backed No | 33c | 128$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 48c | 126.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…b7d9backed No | 33c | 126$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b21…44d9backed No | 33c | 124$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a64…cc1bbacked No | 33c | 124$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f3…8960backed No | 33c | 123$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f8…e03fbacked No | 33c | 123$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…5f53backed No | 33c | 121$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…5a7dbacked No | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fce…c09abacked No | 33c | 118$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…4979backed No | 33c | 116$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16be…c555backed No | 33c | 115$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc71…4971backed No | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…62d8backed No | 33c | 108$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f41…cc83backed No | 15c | 107.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35eb…6307backed No | 33c | 101$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a84…6e6dbacked No | 33c | 99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb18…1568backed Yes | 67c | 98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf78d…3fb6backed Yes | 67c | 98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…4337backed Yes | 67c | 95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0025…c09ebacked Yes | 67c | 93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f9…515cbacked Yes | 67c | 93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…9de9backed Yes | 67c | 93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…4045backed Yes | 67c | 93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed70…2fb7backed Yes | 67c | 92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…b9a4backed Yes | 67c | 91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc5…2743backed Yes | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7792…3b7abacked Yes | 67c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…dc29backed Yes | 67c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba7…751abacked Yes | 67c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…ec70backed Yes | 67c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd2…cce8backed Yes | 67c | 87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716b…ec4dbacked Yes | 67c | 87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…8289backed Yes | 67c | 87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…d0c5backed Yes | 67c | 86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bee…cd57backed Yes | 67c | 86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5823…fc3ebacked Yes | 67c | 85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c5…5567backed Yes | 67c | 84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a80…d741backed Yes | 67c | 84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a5…89fdbacked Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d7…b4d0backed Yes | 67c | 83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4b…640cbacked Yes | 67c | 83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc3…6cacbacked Yes | 67c | 82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 13c | 79.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 27c | 67.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 18c | 66.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9af6…ac34backed No | 33c | 66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…cd8fbacked Yes | 79c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 25c | 63.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…591bbacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 55.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 21c | 54.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 35c | 47.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2323…4c3fbacked Yes | 74c | 46.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 35c | 34.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 34c | 33.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…7910backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…9afcbacked Yes | 76c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of February?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $375 end of February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.