TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,545
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,780

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,545 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1755…5aacbacked Yes68c3,546$2,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.211,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No29c1,830$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.0681240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No10c1,705$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.183215.6%5 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-68.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb67…e62abacked No17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…f596backed No72c834.17$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No13c749.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.54168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes66c643.09$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.618853.2%100 W · 88 L+18.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x5aa5…85cabacked Yes73c622.21$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1686643.9%29 W · 37 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed Yes65c600$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2106864.7%44 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes65c600$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2102688.5%23 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+35.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No31c330$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.760229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ceb…baefbacked Yes43c329.26$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.682445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60e9…8c20backed Yes77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+669.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e38…4464backed No23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12426237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x617a…b4f1backed No7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132010%2 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-85.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaae2…dbdabacked No20c185.8$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.162540%10 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd646…8dcabacked No6c179.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No26c178.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9651927.6%143 W · 376 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No14c174.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8327429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf657…d8cebacked Yes68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No20c140.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.681,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7132…a53ebacked No17c138$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.141735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8d…2531backed No33c136$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9081…ffa0backed No33c132$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf66b…a4c0backed No33c132$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c78…90c7backed No33c128$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes48c126.09$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.111,77949.1%873 W · 906 L+143.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x26ea…b7d9backed No33c126$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b21…44d9backed No33c124$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a64…cc1bbacked No33c124$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f3…8960backed No33c123$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f8…e03fbacked No33c123$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecc7…5f53backed No33c121$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd5…5a7dbacked No33c120$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fce…c09abacked No33c118$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb449…4979backed No33c116$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16be…c555backed No33c115$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc71…4971backed No33c110$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8215…62d8backed No33c108$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f41…cc83backed No15c107.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1650%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35eb…6307backed No33c101$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3056548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a84…6e6dbacked No33c99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb18…1568backed Yes67c98$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf78d…3fb6backed Yes67c98$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ca…4337backed Yes67c95$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0025…c09ebacked Yes67c93$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f9…515cbacked Yes67c93$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c44…9de9backed Yes67c93$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a86…4045backed Yes67c93$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed70…2fb7backed Yes67c92$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39b8…b9a4backed Yes67c91$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc5…2743backed Yes67c90$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7792…3b7abacked Yes67c88$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e9…dc29backed Yes67c88$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba7…751abacked Yes67c88$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f24…ec70backed Yes67c88$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd2…cce8backed Yes67c87$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x716b…ec4dbacked Yes67c87$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc2…8289backed Yes67c87$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4169…d0c5backed Yes67c86$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bee…cd57backed Yes67c86$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5823…fc3ebacked Yes67c85$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c5…5567backed Yes67c84$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a80…d741backed Yes67c84$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a5…89fdbacked Yes48c83.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8d7…b4d0backed Yes67c83$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c4b…640cbacked Yes67c83$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacc3…6cacbacked Yes67c82$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No13c79.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.211323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-60.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes73c75$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2512360.2%74 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No27c67.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2527338.1%104 W · 169 L-19.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No18c66.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1219419.1%37 W · 157 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-49%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9af6…ac34backed No33c66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd761…cd8fbacked Yes79c65$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.65966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No25c63.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.147068.6%48 W · 22 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1ca3…591bbacked No53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes65c55.55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4417049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No21c54.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1948234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No33c48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.847844.9%35 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes35c47.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.878536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2323…4c3fbacked Yes74c46.41$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.211275%9 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes35c34.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5499038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes34c33.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.458239%32 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.171566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd65…7910backed Yes78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick75cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3731…9afcbacked Yes76c20.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.86560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0179…5ff2backed Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73961.5%24 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick67cpaid+16.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.