Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75211845785d42e2cbf367f1bc3fa26e693bdd06c36e921064563b7fe7d5db62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,206$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,247$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.38 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 8c | 821$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 70c | 689.56$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.87 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 76c | 600$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -79%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 71c | 544.6$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.74 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 73c | 508.5$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.29 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked No | 60c | 489.5$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0413…057dbacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 36c | 411$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.96 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 22c | 345.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad4…fa9ebacked No | 74c | 344$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 16c | 161.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc02e…b209backed Yes | 14c | 145$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf68…ae5cbacked Yes | 9c | 144.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…5328backed Yes | 9c | 134.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 19c | 106.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 62c | 99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d1…96eabacked Yes | 14c | 86.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 19c | 80.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 21c | 75.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 74.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa5…85cabacked No | 73c | 53.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 51.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef6…70e0backed Yes | 26c | 51.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…c6efbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 26c | 41.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…14bdbacked Yes | 40c | 33.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…29a8backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of February?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $375 end of February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.