Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1ca50dd1dadeaf12279b577cc261353086758550433453e3b192b03af7f4437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 3,598$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…9c2dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,572$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 77c | 3,389$2,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.26 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 33c | 2,223$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.59 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 64c | 1,788$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.55 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…4500backed No | 79c | 1,377$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 5c | 1,315$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 77c | 925.4$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.4 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked Yes | 34c | 817$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.91 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 68c | 808.2$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.62 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 20c | 765$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.81 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 48c | 750$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 29c | 671.45$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.72 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 25c | 553.15$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.95 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -79%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33f0…b7aebacked Yes | 22c | 506.28$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 72c | 500$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…cc4cbacked Yes | 30c | 400$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked No | 42c | 361.16$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.47 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 44c | 335$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.67 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 69c | 306.24$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.32 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde1c…fb66backed No | 62c | 288.66$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 65c | 250$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.52 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 222.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 75c | 222$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 176.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 79c | 159.77$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 151.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc02e…b209backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 127.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 74c | 108$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…1fd5backed No | 56c | 105.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 102.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 100.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 21c | 95.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 21c | 90.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df5…e7c2backed Yes | 23c | 89.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 35c | 89.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 24c | 77.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 51c | 77.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 70c | 70.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 47c | 68.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa93f…ef7dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3909…afd9backed Yes | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 70c | 41.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 60c | 37.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of February?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $375 end of February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of February?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of February?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.