Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA reach $184 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x947d01614e3d22f6bdf08a13e1a7ba191c9e871523f85d4cc38ecfbf06f60a7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40c8…160ebacked No | 2c | 1,184$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 32c | 582.86$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.77 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 6c | 307.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked No | 18c | 198$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 16c | 138.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…a290backed No | 46c | 124.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…0800backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 37c | 87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 17c | 84.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 63c | 83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…3239backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 77c | 51.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…6771backed No | 35c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +78%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA reach $184 in April?this page
- Will NVIDIA dip to $120 in April?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in April?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $160 in April?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $168 in April?No won
- Will NVIDIA dip to $176 in April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $192 in April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $200 in April?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA reach $212 in April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.